2010 Kentucky Derby Preview
April 30th 2010 06:45
The 2009 Kentucky Derby provided one of the biggest upsets in the history of the classic event when Mine That Bird produced the second biggest upset win in Kentucky Derby history - second only to Donerail who won at 91-1 in 1913. Subsequently Mine That Bird would validate his victory with two excellent runs in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
(photo: Cheryl Ann Quigley) click image for enlargement
With the two favourites for the 2010 Kentucky Derby - Lookin At Lucky (3-1) and Sidney’s Candy (5-1) - drawing (respectively) unfavourable inside and outside gates, their tasks may be made significantly harder. The possibility of another upset result looms large. The inside draw a potential problem for Lookin At Lucky who would be best served by a wide gate. Whereas Sidney’s Candy, a front-running horse, would have been admirably served by an inside draw - but from the outside gate jockey Joe Talamo will need to make use of his energy reserves with an early sprint across the field. And with almost one-third of the field also front-runners - with Super Saver, Line Of David, Discreetly Mine, American Lion, and Conveyance, all pushing for the front - it may be very difficult for Sidney’s Candy to cross and lead. It will take the ride of Joe Talamo’s young career to win from gate 20 - with the expectation that Sidney’s Candy is not Big Brown and has a task to become only the third horse in Kentucky Derby history to win from the 20 gate.
This will be Sidney’s Candy first start on dirt. He has been a dominant player on the synthetic surfaces of California.
Lookin At Lucky has three Grade 1 wins (6 wins from 8 starts) and boasts the record and pedigree (a son of Smart Strike) to win the Derby. He too has proven more adept on synthetic surfaces with his only race experience on dirt producing a narrow head victory (although he did overcome difficulties after clipping heels and nearly falling) in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The inside draw may not prove the fatal flaw it otherwise might have been considering the hectic tempo that seems certain to prevail. Perhaps the forecast of significant rain - producing a muddy, and unfamiliar, dirt track - might be the greatest difficulty for him to overcome.
The 2010 Kentucky Derby boasts a capacity field with many questions still remaining about the majority of the candidates. The prospect of rain would normally favour the speed horses - but with so many engaged that advantage is most likely negated. And might Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy actually be dirt horses who have adapted admirably to synthetic tracks before finding their preferred surface?
Stablemate of Lookin At Lucky, the grey flash Conveyance, is likely to have an impact on the final result of the Derby. Unlikely to relinquish the front he will ensure a fast pace - and difficult trip for the other front-runners. His speed will assist his more favoured stablemate who will need gaps to unleash his closing run. Or might the grey colt just keep running on the (predicted) muddy track?
My selections (and remembering I am a long way from the action in Australia) are:
1 Lookin At Lucky
2 Awesome Act
3 Ice Box
4 Conveyance
Preference given to the closers - with Conveyance given respect.
Cherly Ann Quigley Equine Photography
Conveyance - Garrett Gomez - winning the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita.
(photo: Cheryl Ann Quigley) click image for enlargement
With the two favourites for the 2010 Kentucky Derby - Lookin At Lucky (3-1) and Sidney’s Candy (5-1) - drawing (respectively) unfavourable inside and outside gates, their tasks may be made significantly harder. The possibility of another upset result looms large. The inside draw a potential problem for Lookin At Lucky who would be best served by a wide gate. Whereas Sidney’s Candy, a front-running horse, would have been admirably served by an inside draw - but from the outside gate jockey Joe Talamo will need to make use of his energy reserves with an early sprint across the field. And with almost one-third of the field also front-runners - with Super Saver, Line Of David, Discreetly Mine, American Lion, and Conveyance, all pushing for the front - it may be very difficult for Sidney’s Candy to cross and lead. It will take the ride of Joe Talamo’s young career to win from gate 20 - with the expectation that Sidney’s Candy is not Big Brown and has a task to become only the third horse in Kentucky Derby history to win from the 20 gate.
This will be Sidney’s Candy first start on dirt. He has been a dominant player on the synthetic surfaces of California.
Lookin At Lucky has three Grade 1 wins (6 wins from 8 starts) and boasts the record and pedigree (a son of Smart Strike) to win the Derby. He too has proven more adept on synthetic surfaces with his only race experience on dirt producing a narrow head victory (although he did overcome difficulties after clipping heels and nearly falling) in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The inside draw may not prove the fatal flaw it otherwise might have been considering the hectic tempo that seems certain to prevail. Perhaps the forecast of significant rain - producing a muddy, and unfamiliar, dirt track - might be the greatest difficulty for him to overcome.
The 2010 Kentucky Derby boasts a capacity field with many questions still remaining about the majority of the candidates. The prospect of rain would normally favour the speed horses - but with so many engaged that advantage is most likely negated. And might Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy actually be dirt horses who have adapted admirably to synthetic tracks before finding their preferred surface?
Stablemate of Lookin At Lucky, the grey flash Conveyance, is likely to have an impact on the final result of the Derby. Unlikely to relinquish the front he will ensure a fast pace - and difficult trip for the other front-runners. His speed will assist his more favoured stablemate who will need gaps to unleash his closing run. Or might the grey colt just keep running on the (predicted) muddy track?
My selections (and remembering I am a long way from the action in Australia) are:
1 Lookin At Lucky
2 Awesome Act
3 Ice Box
4 Conveyance
Preference given to the closers - with Conveyance given respect.
Cherly Ann Quigley Equine Photography
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