Averages and Exceptions
August 2nd 2009 00:39
Recently in Melbourne and Sydney there has been much discussion about the number of starts that Lucky Elmo (New South Wales) and Stoneblack (Victoria) have had in their 2 year old season.
That discussion pushed further into focus this weekend with the outstanding 2 year old filly of the previous year, Amelia’s Dream, forced into retirement after injuring her near foreleg in an exhibition gallop between races at Rosehill yesterday. It was the same leg in which she fractured her sesamoid bone - and at the same track - where she was ultimately to have her last racetrack appearance when a decisive winner on the Group Two Silver Slipper Stakes by 6.5 lengths. In her two only race starts she would win by a combined margin of 16 lengths.
The ‘shock’ of early retirement of a 2 year old (or a horse never competing again at 3) is nothing new to us. Neither are very limited racing schedules for 2 year olds. But a prolonged - and trouble free - campaign at this developmental age is very unusual. And that is why everyone has an opinion or comment.
To pick a benchmark, and find an average, we can measure starts (at 2) by winners of the 2 year old classic, the Golden Slipper Stakes. Admittedly, this is the elite end of the scale, but to win a Golden Slipper a young horse does need to be both precocious and able to stand the rigours of intensive training. In this respect they are the best examples of their age. The average number of starts in the 2 year old campaign of Golden Slipper winners of the past 8 years has been 6 starts (6.1 starts to be exact).
Phelan Ready 6 starts
Sebring 6 starts
Forensics 4 starts
Miss Finland 6 starts
Stratum 5 starts
Dance Hero 7 starts
Polar Success 7 starts
Calaway Gal 8 starts
At the end of his 2 year old campaign Lucky Elmo had 20 race starts. Stoneblack had 15 starts in the same period. Many multiples of what could be considered average.
Stoneblack actually improved through his long campaign and after being a maiden for 13 starts he ended the season with two impressive wins. And Stoneblack has been placed in Listed company on two occasions - including a narrow loss in April in the Anzac Day Stakes.
Lucky Elmo has had 3 wins in his busy career to date. His trainer Bindi Cheers trains him upon principles developed in equestrian sport. The only time Lucky Elmo gallops is on raceday, and Cheers believes that avoiding the stress of performing gallops at trackwork will actually prolong his racing career - if not in duration, then at least when measured by starts.
“He’ll have 300 starts, there’s no doubt he’ll have a lot of starts in his career. Hopefully he’ll break the world record,” - Bindi Cheers, as told to Racing and Sports.
Another horse that Cheers trained, Quadri, had 119 starts in just over 3 years. A template for Lucky Elmo.
Trainer Robert Smerdon is full of admiration for Stoneblack:
“He's got an incredible attitude and a remarkable constitution. He takes it all in his stride. He had a couple of starts in the spring then was spelled and gelded and has come back and raced right through. Our attitude has been he can have a spell when he wants to but he keeps going.” - Robert Smerdon, as told to Racing and Sports.
Most 2 year olds are difficult to get to the races on frequent occasion. Mostly they succumb to the growing pains of shin soreness. The rarity of them racing so often is the catalyst for so much comment (criticism in some circles) and conjecture. But a hectic racing schedule as a 2 year old need not spell doom and gloom for a career of longevity - and even acclaim - the record number of starts had by a 2 year is is by the Champion Racehorse Seabiscuit, who would have 35 starts as a 2 year old (winning 5 times) before racing on to fame and acclaim that still resounds to this day.
Personally I really get interested in horses once they begin their 3 year old campaigns. The classic year. For me the 2 year old year is the introduction and the education phase for thoroughbred. Full of promise - or exceptionally precocious. But champions evolve at three. And memories from there on sustain.
Seabiscuit - the exception to almost every rule
That discussion pushed further into focus this weekend with the outstanding 2 year old filly of the previous year, Amelia’s Dream, forced into retirement after injuring her near foreleg in an exhibition gallop between races at Rosehill yesterday. It was the same leg in which she fractured her sesamoid bone - and at the same track - where she was ultimately to have her last racetrack appearance when a decisive winner on the Group Two Silver Slipper Stakes by 6.5 lengths. In her two only race starts she would win by a combined margin of 16 lengths.
The ‘shock’ of early retirement of a 2 year old (or a horse never competing again at 3) is nothing new to us. Neither are very limited racing schedules for 2 year olds. But a prolonged - and trouble free - campaign at this developmental age is very unusual. And that is why everyone has an opinion or comment.
To pick a benchmark, and find an average, we can measure starts (at 2) by winners of the 2 year old classic, the Golden Slipper Stakes. Admittedly, this is the elite end of the scale, but to win a Golden Slipper a young horse does need to be both precocious and able to stand the rigours of intensive training. In this respect they are the best examples of their age. The average number of starts in the 2 year old campaign of Golden Slipper winners of the past 8 years has been 6 starts (6.1 starts to be exact).
Phelan Ready 6 starts
Sebring 6 starts
Forensics 4 starts
Miss Finland 6 starts
Stratum 5 starts
Dance Hero 7 starts
Polar Success 7 starts
Calaway Gal 8 starts
At the end of his 2 year old campaign Lucky Elmo had 20 race starts. Stoneblack had 15 starts in the same period. Many multiples of what could be considered average.
Stoneblack actually improved through his long campaign and after being a maiden for 13 starts he ended the season with two impressive wins. And Stoneblack has been placed in Listed company on two occasions - including a narrow loss in April in the Anzac Day Stakes.
Lucky Elmo has had 3 wins in his busy career to date. His trainer Bindi Cheers trains him upon principles developed in equestrian sport. The only time Lucky Elmo gallops is on raceday, and Cheers believes that avoiding the stress of performing gallops at trackwork will actually prolong his racing career - if not in duration, then at least when measured by starts.
“He’ll have 300 starts, there’s no doubt he’ll have a lot of starts in his career. Hopefully he’ll break the world record,” - Bindi Cheers, as told to Racing and Sports.
Another horse that Cheers trained, Quadri, had 119 starts in just over 3 years. A template for Lucky Elmo.
Trainer Robert Smerdon is full of admiration for Stoneblack:
“He's got an incredible attitude and a remarkable constitution. He takes it all in his stride. He had a couple of starts in the spring then was spelled and gelded and has come back and raced right through. Our attitude has been he can have a spell when he wants to but he keeps going.” - Robert Smerdon, as told to Racing and Sports.
Most 2 year olds are difficult to get to the races on frequent occasion. Mostly they succumb to the growing pains of shin soreness. The rarity of them racing so often is the catalyst for so much comment (criticism in some circles) and conjecture. But a hectic racing schedule as a 2 year old need not spell doom and gloom for a career of longevity - and even acclaim - the record number of starts had by a 2 year is is by the Champion Racehorse Seabiscuit, who would have 35 starts as a 2 year old (winning 5 times) before racing on to fame and acclaim that still resounds to this day.
Personally I really get interested in horses once they begin their 3 year old campaigns. The classic year. For me the 2 year old year is the introduction and the education phase for thoroughbred. Full of promise - or exceptionally precocious. But champions evolve at three. And memories from there on sustain.
| 60 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog
