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Horse racing is much more than an excuse for gambling. It is a love for the beauty, grace and speed of the horse. It can also be an intellectual battle of examining competing facts and trying to formulate the future from results of the past. In some ways it is an investigation, as performed by an eager detective. And in other ways it can be the thrill of a crossword puzzle, with multiple possible responses, but ultimately only one correct answer. I have been involved with horse racing in both practical and intellectual ways. My passion for the theatre of the racetrack saw me leave school at fifteen and spend early mornings immersed in the sweat, smells, and sting of preparing horses for racing. Later I would come to research bloodlines and work in the multi-million dollar world of thoroughbred breeding and sales. Horse racing has many facets. It does not sit in isolation in the world. It is something we should explore in detail and in depth. For more than ten years I have provided speedrating information to the racing industry and public through my company: Speedratings (www.speedratings.com.au).

Cat on Target for Winterbottom Stakes

November 28th 2008 07:43
This Saturday at Ascot is the running of the Group Two Winterbottom Stakes over 1200m.

Apache Cat
Apache Cat


(photo: Neil Murray)

It has attracted a field of only nine runners - but that should enable a victory by the best horse, and not the horse who has the greater luck in running.


The last time sprint superstar Takeover Target raced was at Ascot - though this was not the tricky Ascot track of Perth, but the expansive undulations of Royal Ascot in June. He was so very brave when narrowly defeated by Equiano in the King’s Stand Stakes over 1000m, before running a brave and injured 4th (suffering a minor tear in a suspensory ligament) in the Golden Jubliee Stakes over 1200m, behind Kingsgate Native.

In the aftermath of that race and injury it was debated as to whether the (then rising) 9 year old would race again. But Takeover Target was given plenty of time to recover, and he is now set to resume as favourite in the Winterbottom Stakes. He was set to resume during the Melbourne Spring Carnival in the Group One Patinack Farm Stakes - a much anticipated clash then between he and Apache Cat - but he suffered a stone bruise and was ruled out.

As a lead up to their raceday clash, Takeover Target and Apache Cat worked together between races at Ascot, with Takeover Target looking much sharper and holding a clear advantage. But that was the Apache Cat of training and not raceday - his trademark white blinkers will be added when he starts in the Winterbottom.


Jay Ford has flown back from Singapore, where he rides on retainer as the number one jockey for Michael Freedman, to take the ride on Takeover Target.

"I'm enjoying Singapore. I've only been there two months and I've ridden eight winners. But I'll go anywhere to ride Takeover Target. Joe is thinking about races in New Zealand, Singapore and maybe even Royal Ascot again next year, so a lot depends how the horse goes in his two races in Perth. If Takeover Target is racing anywhere, I want to be there to ride him - he's a once-in-a-lifetime horse." - Jay Ford.

Takeover Target has drawn barrier one in the Winterbottom. His first-up record sees him successful 50% of the time with 4 wins from 8 starts.

Apache Cat has been the standout sprinter in Australia in 2008 - that is why his very disappointing failure in the Patinack Farm Stakes first up is so puzzling. It was the worst performance of his career, and he was the first horse beaten when the pressure was applied. His trip to Hong Kong to compete in the $2.8 million Hong Kong Sprint over 1200m at Sha Tin on December 14th hangs in the balance.

“I couldn’t ask him to be any better. He is in a good frame of mind, rock hard fit and settled. He would have to win or run a very close second to sanction the trip.” - Greg Eurell, trainer.

Danny Beau - half-brother to Miss Andretti - is now the track record holder for the Ascot 1200m and the new local sprint star. He has drawn the outside in barrier 9 and would prefer to lead if possible. When he broke his illustrious half-sister’s track record last start there was a howling wind that pushed all race times well inside expected par values over all distances raced on the day. But there is no question mark surrounding his fitness or attitude - and he is undefeated since resuming in November.

Champion miler Marasco has been dropped back in distance from the 1600m of the Railway Stakes to the 1200m of the Winterbottom. Last week from his wide barrier and with top weight he was always well back in the field and was one of many horses who failed to make ground. The fact that the inside grass at Ascot is rolled between races dismayed Victorian trainer Peter Moody who made a representation to stewards seeking an explanation to the wisdom of ‘making a fast lane’ by compacting the first few metres of grass away from the rail. Fred Kersley also agrees with Moody that it creates a leaders bias.

With this race expected to be one of high speed there has been support for Marasco to achieve a form reversal and storm home late. Weekend Hussler’s jockey Brad Rawiller has been engaged to ride him after his regular jockey William Pike elected to stay on the Hayes trained filly Hip’s Don’t Lie. The 3 year old Stravinsky filly gets a great advantage at WFA carrying just 51.5 kg against the 58.5 of the older horses. She ran a solid race when 4th to Danny Beau in record time last start - this following her shock win on Melbourne Cup Day when she won the 1000m Schweppes 1000 at long odds. This was also to be the best ride that Johnny Murtagh would produce at the Flemington Carnival.


So the Winterbottom Stakes appears to be a race that requires some faith and trust in champion status and previous performance. If the benchmark brilliance of Takeover Target and Apache Cat returns to the fore then they will fight out the finish. If Danny Beau and Takeover Target cut at each other for the lead then the race would be set up for Apache Cat (if the real Apache Cat comes to the races this time). Or could Marasco with his brilliance at a mile storm home to defeat them all? This time David Hayes will have Hip’s Don’t Lie ridden cold and not chasing the speed like she did last start. This time she will be trying to repeat her barnstorming finish as produced with Johnny Murtagh up at Flemington - and this time carrying no weight.

I can’t really entertain any of the other four local Perth horses winning. But the five possibilities make this an enthralling race.

1 Apache Cat
2 Takeover Target
3 Danny Beau


Sportingbet odds:

Takeover Target $2.55
Apache Cat $3.00
Danny Beau $5.25
Marasco $8.00
Hips Don’t Lie $18.00
Hadabeclorka $26.00
Royal Lott $41.00
Innovation $71.00
Surprise Impact $151.00
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