Berlioz (at 150/1)
August 8th 2010 12:36
Surprise is an ongoing feature of horseracing.
(photo: Neil Murray)
Neil Murray Photography
We expect the unexpected, but also revel in our arcane ability to predict the unpredictable.
I approach horseracing scientifically, looking for a measure to apply to a horse to improve my chances of predicting the outcome of a race. And the principle of applying speedfigures provides a consistency of result and confidence in the process.
But the nature of horseracing does also entail that a trainer may be running a horse over a distance too far (or too short) - or on a track that is soft and unsuitable. Or perhaps the horse may just be lacking race fitness. Or sometimes there is just a surprise.
So there is always the occasion when the lucky omen, the hunch, or the barracking and urging of the lady in the red hat (who was sitting to the right of me in the grandstand) reigns supreme.
At Flemington this Saturday the speedfigures for Race 5 were (in an abbreviated form) this:
Best recent speed performance: Pinnacles; Only He Knows...
The race was run over 1700 metres on a slow track and Pinnacles - although with best speedfigures - was attempting to win at a distance 300 metres further than he had ever before. While Only He Knows was dropping 300 metres from his winning distance of 2000 metres at Caulfield.
Yes - the vagaries of predicting horse races. In fact these grey areas of doubt made this a race best left alone. One to watch instead of risking investment. That is unless you were the lady in the red hat.
Only He Knows - ridden by Glen Boss - had been heavily supported to win and both he and Pinnacles (ridden by accomplished apprentice Jake Noonan) staked their claim as they swept up to the fading Monsieur Feraud and Bonindi halfway down the long Flemington straight. But it was soon obvious that Pinnacles could not sprint home as effectively over the longer trip and he began to fade (and would finish third). Glen Boss drew Only He Knows clear and was looking set for victory - that is until the lady in the red hat proclaimed the surprise result.
“Go Berlioz! Gogogo!!”
And sweeping up to a surprised Glen Boss was jockey Dean Yendall aboard the 150/1 longshot Berlioz. There ensued a brief battle with Only He Knows trying to hold on. But surprise is a powerful force. Surprise will prevail. Berlioz stuck his head out (Dean Yendall stuck his head down) and Berlioz would win by a narrow margin.
Much to the surprise of his jockey.
Much to the surprise (“I gave him no chance”) of his master trainer David Hayes.
But there was only delight evident in the sweep-by and swift decent from the elevated grandstand by the woman in red (hat) who had backed a winner. A winner at one hundred and fifty to one!
David Rosenquist & Rosemary Shimmin Handicap 1700m $75,000
1st Berlioz Dean Yendall trainer David Hayes $151
2nd Only He Knows Glen Boss trainer Robert Smerdon $5.00
3rd Pinnacles Jake Noonan trainer Rick Hore-Lacy $3.20 fav
margin: a head by 1 1/4 lengths.
postscript:
Perhaps on reflection the odds offer for Berlioz were way out of kilter with his past performances. He is in fact a Group 3 winner of the VRC St Leger (2800 metres) and was placed 2nd in the WATC Derby. Although he had not won or placed since April 2009 he has certainly proved a more than handy horse once stretched out beyond a mile. A fact probably known by the lady in red.
Berlioz (outside) claims Only He Knows in shadows of post for shock win at 150/1
(photo: Neil Murray)
Neil Murray Photography
We expect the unexpected, but also revel in our arcane ability to predict the unpredictable.
I approach horseracing scientifically, looking for a measure to apply to a horse to improve my chances of predicting the outcome of a race. And the principle of applying speedfigures provides a consistency of result and confidence in the process.
But the nature of horseracing does also entail that a trainer may be running a horse over a distance too far (or too short) - or on a track that is soft and unsuitable. Or perhaps the horse may just be lacking race fitness. Or sometimes there is just a surprise.
So there is always the occasion when the lucky omen, the hunch, or the barracking and urging of the lady in the red hat (who was sitting to the right of me in the grandstand) reigns supreme.
At Flemington this Saturday the speedfigures for Race 5 were (in an abbreviated form) this:
The race was run over 1700 metres on a slow track and Pinnacles - although with best speedfigures - was attempting to win at a distance 300 metres further than he had ever before. While Only He Knows was dropping 300 metres from his winning distance of 2000 metres at Caulfield.
Yes - the vagaries of predicting horse races. In fact these grey areas of doubt made this a race best left alone. One to watch instead of risking investment. That is unless you were the lady in the red hat.
Only He Knows - ridden by Glen Boss - had been heavily supported to win and both he and Pinnacles (ridden by accomplished apprentice Jake Noonan) staked their claim as they swept up to the fading Monsieur Feraud and Bonindi halfway down the long Flemington straight. But it was soon obvious that Pinnacles could not sprint home as effectively over the longer trip and he began to fade (and would finish third). Glen Boss drew Only He Knows clear and was looking set for victory - that is until the lady in the red hat proclaimed the surprise result.
“Go Berlioz! Gogogo!!”
And sweeping up to a surprised Glen Boss was jockey Dean Yendall aboard the 150/1 longshot Berlioz. There ensued a brief battle with Only He Knows trying to hold on. But surprise is a powerful force. Surprise will prevail. Berlioz stuck his head out (Dean Yendall stuck his head down) and Berlioz would win by a narrow margin.
Much to the surprise of his jockey.
Much to the surprise (“I gave him no chance”) of his master trainer David Hayes.
But there was only delight evident in the sweep-by and swift decent from the elevated grandstand by the woman in red (hat) who had backed a winner. A winner at one hundred and fifty to one!
David Rosenquist & Rosemary Shimmin Handicap 1700m $75,000
1st Berlioz Dean Yendall trainer David Hayes $151
2nd Only He Knows Glen Boss trainer Robert Smerdon $5.00
3rd Pinnacles Jake Noonan trainer Rick Hore-Lacy $3.20 fav
margin: a head by 1 1/4 lengths.
postscript:
Perhaps on reflection the odds offer for Berlioz were way out of kilter with his past performances. He is in fact a Group 3 winner of the VRC St Leger (2800 metres) and was placed 2nd in the WATC Derby. Although he had not won or placed since April 2009 he has certainly proved a more than handy horse once stretched out beyond a mile. A fact probably known by the lady in red.
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