It's Efficient at the top
June 27th 2008 09:05
It’s still quite some time till the running of the Melbourne Cup, but early markets have been operating for some time already. I spend quite a deal of time discussing overseas racing, so I thought I may focus my attention this time to matters closer to home. Difficult for me as I must keep speedfigures as an asset for the benefit of clients, but I can talk in general terms, and discuss the likely overseas competitors who will not have a Speedrating unless racing here previously.
Heading the betting (Sportingbet Australia) is last year’s winner, Efficient.
I have quite a history with this horse, openly labelling him as one of the best staying propositions I have seen when he raced through his 3 year old year. I was pleased (same reaction as with Weekend Hussler) that he is a gelding, and we are therefore likely to be blessed with a few years of exciting (sometimes interesting) performances instead of prematurely off to stud.
The Caulfield Cup of 2006 had been a superior speed event and I spent most of my time assessing the likely and logical improvement to come from this race. Most clients (in my newsletters) knew that I had narrowed the chances to three horses, with always a distinct leaning to Delta Blues. But then Lloyd Williams considered a Melbourne Cup start after Efficient brilliantly won the VRC Derby. I really did not wish him to run that year - so soon and too immature. Thankfully he did not start, and Delta Blues validated my opinions.
This is how I rated (and commented upon) the Melbourne Cup of 2006:
1 Efficient
2 Delta Blues
3 Tawqeet
4 Pop Rock
5 Activation / Yeats
This years Caulfield Cup was a brilliant speed event, the best for many years. The task then was to take several factors into account and estimate who would have the most improvement from this race. And then the spanner is thrown into the works with Efficient.
I have never before seen speedfigures such as those for Efficient created in a first preparation (his peak at only his 5th race start). He appears to be possessed of freakish ability and I would have been happy to spell him after his Derby win and then win everything with him in future campaigns. But the stable is taking on history. 1n 1995 Nothin' Leica Dane ran 2nd in the Melbourne Cup to Doriemus at only his 8th race start (also in his first preparation) and he did not have speedfigures anywhere near those of Efficient. The task is daunting for such an inexperienced horse and he would most likely have to be a freak to win. Perhaps he is (until proven otherwise). He has 4th best recent speed but has yet to reach his benchmark. He certainly gives this Melbourne Cup another level of interest and excitement.
Delta Blues performed brilliantly in the Caulfield Cup, racing wide and seeming to flounder on the turn, before surging home over the last 100m. A quality Japanese performer of Group 1 status with wins in the Japanese St Leger and a 3rd in the Japan Cup. And most recently he has been chasing home one of the best horses in the world, Deep Impact. He won brilliantly over 3600m 2nd up after a 45 week spell last campaign and he looks very well suited. Huge danger.
Tawqeet has best speed profile and recent speed performances. Has just kept getting better through his campaign and his Caulfield Cup win was a brilliant effort. Most years the Melbourne Cup is won by the horse with the best recent speed performance (Makybe Diva, Media Puzzle, Might And Power, etc.) although sometimes I look for an improving performer outside of the obvious. His status as best speed performer enhances his prospects and he will be very hard to beat.
Pop Rock, the lesser credentialled stablemate of Delta Blues, has 5th best recent speed performance and was an impressive fast finishing 7th in the Caulfield Cup. Has come through lesser grades in great style and shown enough speed improvement to rate as a significant chance, especially having the services of Damien Oliver to help him navigate the course.
I was very pleased when Efficient was scratched. The race then won by Delta Blues.
So in 2007 I waited for the Efficient that I knew to re-emerge. This would be the year he would validate my opinion. I was not disappointed with his two appearances in the Autumn in The Schweppervescence Cup (1400m) and The Cadbury Guineas (1600m) as both races proved tactically inappropriate for him. I waited for the Spring. Clients would ask for my early prediction and it would always be Efficient.
First up in the Spring an ordinary, but almost expected, first up failure. No panic. Second up and back to Moonee Valley (where he did produce his best speedfigures) he ran a very promising 4th in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) behind El Segundo and Haradasun (both of these chasing hard to catch Cinque Cento who shot away and may have still won if for not being pressured early). Efficient relished the pace and ran home impressively. Melbourne Cup here we come.
But then Efficient failed in the Turnbull Stakes on a shifting track when caught on the inside (and worst) part of the track. Frustrating - but that’s racing. Excuses.
So far Efficient’s speedfigures had seen him as top selection in the feature races. And leading into the WS Cox Plate I had no reason to change. Efficient was heavily supported but ran the most disappointing race I can remember. By this stage - with not even a placing - I was doubtful if he had come up for this campaign. His recent speedfigures were few and minor.
Sure ‘trainer’ Lloyd Williams would have Efficient schooled over jumps to sharpen him up. But that did appear as less than required. The Caulfield Cup again (and this is not always the case) was a strong speed indicator, and Purple Moon looked a logical winning prospect after his impressive performance. By this stage I was tagging Efficient as ‘enigmatic’. And then regular jockey Stephen Arnold opted to ride the geriatric Gallic in preference to Efficient. Jockeys are not great judges (this proved again on this occasion) but it did seem significant at the time.
On his best, Efficient was as good as (better than) any horse in the Melbourne Cup. But we had not seen his best for 12 months. There was always the dull ache (persistent thought) of worry that Efficient would teach us all a lesson. Speedfigures are like Timeform ratings - indicating a value to a best performance. Repeat his best and (most likely) win. Repeat his recent efforts and certainly fail.
With this in mind I watched the race with usual interest and excitement; but also some trepidation.
Efficient caught my attention mid-race. He was travelling extremely well. Loping and looming. As they straightened up it was Purple Moon that looked set for victory - that is until you looked back and saw Efficient moved wide by Michael Rodd (clear sailing) and unleashing the powerful sprint that he is capable of producing when on song.
Efficient heads the betting again in 2008, and quite rightly so. The defending champion who is trained only for (repeat) success in this tough staying test. As witnessed with Yeats and his three Ascot Gold Cup victories, when a horse is suited by his own attributes and a test of stamina, they usually remain constantly competitive.
This year there appears to be a strong contingent of overseas horses targetting The Melbourne Cup. The Japanese will be prominent with their ability to train stayers, and their knowledge of what is required to win a Melbourne Cup. And the English and Irish (Cumani...via Italy...and O’Brien) know this race well and the requirements to win. It looms as a great race. So much better now as an international race of some repute, rather than the dour Melbourne Cups that preceded the influx of overseas competitors.
Melbourne Cup 2008 (early betting):
Efficient12
Septimus17
Tuesday Joy17
Kibbutz17
Weekend Hussler21
Littorio21
Cest La Guerre21
Boundless26
Admire Jupiter (jpn)26
Patkai26
Master O’reilly26
Maldivian26
Pop Rock (jpn)26
Princess Coup26
Largo Lad26
Nom Du Jeu26
Pasta Post31
Vermilion (jpn)31
Purple Moon31
Viewed31
Heavenly Glow31
No Wine No Song31
Moment In Time35
Gorky Park35
Delta Blues (jpn)35
Meisho Samson (jpn)35
Roc De Cambels (jpn)35
Playwright35
Light Fantastic35
Dealer Principal35
Triple Honour35
New Spice41
Moatize41
Light Vision41
Arapaho Miss41
Fiumicino41
Eskimo Queen41
Maybe Better41
Tosho Knight (jpn)41
Sirmione41
Admire Moon (jpn)41
Mahler41
Najib41
Riva San41
Yeats41
Enough talk of Efficient in the Melbourne Cup. Let’s watch him win the VRC Derby of 2007:
Efficient winning 2007 Melbourne Cup
Heading the betting (Sportingbet Australia) is last year’s winner, Efficient.
I have quite a history with this horse, openly labelling him as one of the best staying propositions I have seen when he raced through his 3 year old year. I was pleased (same reaction as with Weekend Hussler) that he is a gelding, and we are therefore likely to be blessed with a few years of exciting (sometimes interesting) performances instead of prematurely off to stud.
The Caulfield Cup of 2006 had been a superior speed event and I spent most of my time assessing the likely and logical improvement to come from this race. Most clients (in my newsletters) knew that I had narrowed the chances to three horses, with always a distinct leaning to Delta Blues. But then Lloyd Williams considered a Melbourne Cup start after Efficient brilliantly won the VRC Derby. I really did not wish him to run that year - so soon and too immature. Thankfully he did not start, and Delta Blues validated my opinions.
This is how I rated (and commented upon) the Melbourne Cup of 2006:
1 Efficient
2 Delta Blues
3 Tawqeet
4 Pop Rock
5 Activation / Yeats
This years Caulfield Cup was a brilliant speed event, the best for many years. The task then was to take several factors into account and estimate who would have the most improvement from this race. And then the spanner is thrown into the works with Efficient.
I have never before seen speedfigures such as those for Efficient created in a first preparation (his peak at only his 5th race start). He appears to be possessed of freakish ability and I would have been happy to spell him after his Derby win and then win everything with him in future campaigns. But the stable is taking on history. 1n 1995 Nothin' Leica Dane ran 2nd in the Melbourne Cup to Doriemus at only his 8th race start (also in his first preparation) and he did not have speedfigures anywhere near those of Efficient. The task is daunting for such an inexperienced horse and he would most likely have to be a freak to win. Perhaps he is (until proven otherwise). He has 4th best recent speed but has yet to reach his benchmark. He certainly gives this Melbourne Cup another level of interest and excitement.
Delta Blues performed brilliantly in the Caulfield Cup, racing wide and seeming to flounder on the turn, before surging home over the last 100m. A quality Japanese performer of Group 1 status with wins in the Japanese St Leger and a 3rd in the Japan Cup. And most recently he has been chasing home one of the best horses in the world, Deep Impact. He won brilliantly over 3600m 2nd up after a 45 week spell last campaign and he looks very well suited. Huge danger.
Tawqeet has best speed profile and recent speed performances. Has just kept getting better through his campaign and his Caulfield Cup win was a brilliant effort. Most years the Melbourne Cup is won by the horse with the best recent speed performance (Makybe Diva, Media Puzzle, Might And Power, etc.) although sometimes I look for an improving performer outside of the obvious. His status as best speed performer enhances his prospects and he will be very hard to beat.
Pop Rock, the lesser credentialled stablemate of Delta Blues, has 5th best recent speed performance and was an impressive fast finishing 7th in the Caulfield Cup. Has come through lesser grades in great style and shown enough speed improvement to rate as a significant chance, especially having the services of Damien Oliver to help him navigate the course.
I was very pleased when Efficient was scratched. The race then won by Delta Blues.
So in 2007 I waited for the Efficient that I knew to re-emerge. This would be the year he would validate my opinion. I was not disappointed with his two appearances in the Autumn in The Schweppervescence Cup (1400m) and The Cadbury Guineas (1600m) as both races proved tactically inappropriate for him. I waited for the Spring. Clients would ask for my early prediction and it would always be Efficient.
First up in the Spring an ordinary, but almost expected, first up failure. No panic. Second up and back to Moonee Valley (where he did produce his best speedfigures) he ran a very promising 4th in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) behind El Segundo and Haradasun (both of these chasing hard to catch Cinque Cento who shot away and may have still won if for not being pressured early). Efficient relished the pace and ran home impressively. Melbourne Cup here we come.
But then Efficient failed in the Turnbull Stakes on a shifting track when caught on the inside (and worst) part of the track. Frustrating - but that’s racing. Excuses.
So far Efficient’s speedfigures had seen him as top selection in the feature races. And leading into the WS Cox Plate I had no reason to change. Efficient was heavily supported but ran the most disappointing race I can remember. By this stage - with not even a placing - I was doubtful if he had come up for this campaign. His recent speedfigures were few and minor.
Sure ‘trainer’ Lloyd Williams would have Efficient schooled over jumps to sharpen him up. But that did appear as less than required. The Caulfield Cup again (and this is not always the case) was a strong speed indicator, and Purple Moon looked a logical winning prospect after his impressive performance. By this stage I was tagging Efficient as ‘enigmatic’. And then regular jockey Stephen Arnold opted to ride the geriatric Gallic in preference to Efficient. Jockeys are not great judges (this proved again on this occasion) but it did seem significant at the time.
On his best, Efficient was as good as (better than) any horse in the Melbourne Cup. But we had not seen his best for 12 months. There was always the dull ache (persistent thought) of worry that Efficient would teach us all a lesson. Speedfigures are like Timeform ratings - indicating a value to a best performance. Repeat his best and (most likely) win. Repeat his recent efforts and certainly fail.
With this in mind I watched the race with usual interest and excitement; but also some trepidation.
Efficient caught my attention mid-race. He was travelling extremely well. Loping and looming. As they straightened up it was Purple Moon that looked set for victory - that is until you looked back and saw Efficient moved wide by Michael Rodd (clear sailing) and unleashing the powerful sprint that he is capable of producing when on song.
Efficient heads the betting again in 2008, and quite rightly so. The defending champion who is trained only for (repeat) success in this tough staying test. As witnessed with Yeats and his three Ascot Gold Cup victories, when a horse is suited by his own attributes and a test of stamina, they usually remain constantly competitive.
This year there appears to be a strong contingent of overseas horses targetting The Melbourne Cup. The Japanese will be prominent with their ability to train stayers, and their knowledge of what is required to win a Melbourne Cup. And the English and Irish (Cumani...via Italy...and O’Brien) know this race well and the requirements to win. It looms as a great race. So much better now as an international race of some repute, rather than the dour Melbourne Cups that preceded the influx of overseas competitors.
Melbourne Cup 2008 (early betting):
Efficient12
Septimus17
Tuesday Joy17
Kibbutz17
Weekend Hussler21
Littorio21
Cest La Guerre21
Boundless26
Admire Jupiter (jpn)26
Patkai26
Master O’reilly26
Maldivian26
Pop Rock (jpn)26
Princess Coup26
Largo Lad26
Nom Du Jeu26
Pasta Post31
Vermilion (jpn)31
Purple Moon31
Viewed31
Heavenly Glow31
No Wine No Song31
Moment In Time35
Gorky Park35
Delta Blues (jpn)35
Meisho Samson (jpn)35
Roc De Cambels (jpn)35
Playwright35
Light Fantastic35
Dealer Principal35
Triple Honour35
New Spice41
Moatize41
Light Vision41
Arapaho Miss41
Fiumicino41
Eskimo Queen41
Maybe Better41
Tosho Knight (jpn)41
Sirmione41
Admire Moon (jpn)41
Mahler41
Najib41
Riva San41
Yeats41
Enough talk of Efficient in the Melbourne Cup. Let’s watch him win the VRC Derby of 2007:
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