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Horse racing is much more than an excuse for gambling. It is a love for the beauty, grace and speed of the horse. It can also be an intellectual battle of examining competing facts and trying to formulate the future from results of the past. In some ways it is an investigation, as performed by an eager detective. And in other ways it can be the thrill of a crossword puzzle, with multiple possible responses, but ultimately only one correct answer. I have been involved with horse racing in both practical and intellectual ways. My passion for the theatre of the racetrack saw me leave school at fifteen and spend early mornings immersed in the sweat, smells, and sting of preparing horses for racing. Later I would come to research bloodlines and work in the multi-million dollar world of thoroughbred breeding and sales. Horse racing has many facets. It does not sit in isolation in the world. It is something we should explore in detail and in depth. For more than ten years I have provided speedrating information to the racing industry and public through my company: Speedratings (www.speedratings.com.au).

Slow going and shenanigans

June 4th 2008 09:00
The Epsom Derby approaches this Saturday and the Melbourne (Cup) connection is well to the fore. Irish trainer Dermot Weld has paid the supplementary entry fee (as we expected) for the very impressive colt Casual Conquest. He is one of three supplementary entries into the classic, the other two being Doctor Fremantle and River Proud. Weld has only had four previous runners in the Epsom Derby with best performance being a 7th with Theatrical in 1985. Casual Conquest is expected to start favourite.

Second favourite is likely to be Curtain Call, trained by Luca Cumani. Cumani went close to emulating the success of Dermot Weld in winning a Melbourne Cup when Purple Moon finished a brave 2nd behind Efficient Last year. Luca Cumani has won the Derby on two previous occasions with Kahyasi in 1988, followed ten years later in 1998 with High-Rise. Is anyone else sensing a sequence here? There is no rhyme or reason why he would win a Derby every ten years - but it is an interesting pattern. I still prefer the hard data of Speedratings and fact and comparison to luck or hunches - but I am also subject to some fascination with the unusual or strange.


This Derby build up has been one of great intrigue. Both Henrythenavigator and New Approach (respectively winner and runner-up in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas), were both initially deemed by their stables as ‘too brilliant’ for a Derby distance. We know the saga of Henrythenavigator - but now it appears that the front-running Galileo colt, New Approach, is likely to start. He was easily defeated by Henrythenavigator in Ireland, but did not handle the hard track. Epsom will provide a softer track - but can this brilliant horse run the distance?

The stumbling block with Henrythenavigator is still the prospect of soft ground. As of today the track is officially Soft (Good to Soft in places). That description (including that in parenthesis) is from the official site. The map of the course shows a predominantly ‘soft’ course with patches of some 200 metres (in four areas) as being borderline Good. The weather forecast is for no rain and periods of sunshine leading up to Saturday. Will there be another twist and change of plan. Casual Conquest will not start on firm ground. Henrythenavigator not on soft. Can New Approach (European Champion Juvenile 2007) lead all of the way to win a Derby?


track conditions at Epsom
track conditions at Epsom


key to conditions
key to conditions


Who will win the Epsom Derby of 2008? Best we wait and see exactly who will be running.

One of the favourites, Tartan Bearer winning the Dante Stakes at York (defeating one time Derby favourite Twice Over).

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