How fast can a thoroughbred horse run?
December 13th 2008 07:44
Mark Denny is a highly regarded professor of biology at Stanford University in the United States.
(photo: vgn.img.terra.com)
His latest study in 2008 is titled "Limits to running speed in dogs, horses and humans” and is published in the Journal of Experimental Biology.
Denny concludes that the sprinting speeds of horses and dogs have reached their peak, but people still have considerable improvement that can be made.
The world record efforts of Usain Bolt in the 100m and 200m sprints at the Beijing Olympic Games gave the Stanford professor cause to ponder improvements in speed. He noted that people have been getting faster over recent decades - which begged the question: might massive increase in population simply be creating a larger pool? But also, he wondered, what are the absolute limits to running speeds - and are we close to achieving them?
Denny studied records of the running performances recorded by humans and thoroughbred horses dating back to the 19th century. For greyhounds he studied records back to the 1920’s.
His study concludes that thoroughbred horses have already reached a speed plateau.
Although his study was based on race times recorded in the US, it would be reasonable to assume that this would hold true to the world-wide thoroughbred population as a whole.
Denny analysed the records for the US Triple Crown races from 1896 to 2008 (noting that the Preakness Stakes results were from 1925 to 2008; and the Belmont Stakes from 1926 when the current distance was introduced).
He noted that horses are not running any faster in modern times than they were in past decades. He also assessed that the predicted maximum running speed for a horse is only 0.52 - 1.05% faster than current race records. Denny asserts that a plateau was achieved for the respective distances of the Kentucky Derby in1949; the Preakness Stakes in 1971; and the Belmont Stakes in 1973.
"Despite the fact that horses have been bred for speed and the population from which to select fast racehorses has increased over the past 50 years, race speeds have not increased in the past 40-60 years."
"These results suggest that definite speed limits do indeed exist for horses and that their current speeds are very close to these predicted limits. Horses appear to have reached their limit.”
“However, chance might still turn up a faster animal.” - Professor Mark Denny.
Denny predicts that thoroughbreds could improve their top speeds by as much as 1% by the time of the 2012 Kentucky Derby, eventually peaking at a top speed of just over 17 metres per second.
Looking at the speeds of human male race winners through the years, it seems as if men still haven't reached their top speeds at any distance, and Denny predicts that male 100m sprinters could one day get the record down to an incredible 9.48 seconds, running 0.23m/s faster than Usain Bolt's current world record of 9.69 seconds.
Denny is pleased to have shown that it is possible to calculate the absolute limits to speed of running animals ranging from humans to thoroughbred horses. However, he emphasises that we have no idea what aspect of physiology restricts a runners performance, and is keen to find out what will prevent future gold medal winners from breaking Denny's Limits.
Of course this research cannot account for the genetic freak who will take records beyond the parameters considered possible. And also to remember that it was predicted that man could not possibly run a ‘four minute mile' . Considering that Usain Bolt has a diet of chicken nuggets before competition - imagine the natural improvement to be made straight away with just a healthy diet!
And of course technological advances in racetrack surface and design can alter speed outcomes. Improvements to shoeing would be another factor.
Imposing a notion of preconceived limit or truism leaves opportunity for scepticism. We all know a list of truisms that are now historical novelties.
Mark Denny’s most publicised work was his study on water striders - which led to the term “Denny’s paradox” to explain a discrepancy between physics and previous understandings of how surface dwelling animals, such as the insect water strider moves.
It is interesting research. But I'm not sure if it will be the last word on the speed of the thoroughbred.
I’m not sure that the list of current Australian records would also support Professor Denny’s assertion. More than half of the Australian records have been created within the past 10 years (from 1998).
0:50:20 Rory's Tycoon 900m 17.12.2000 Sandown
0:54:76 Bush Outlaw 1000m 20.01.2001 Sandown
1:02:08 Miss Kournikova 1100m 24.02.2001 Caulfield
1:07:16 Iglesia 1200m 01.01.2001 Flemington
1:14:77 Al Mansour 1300m 19.08.2000 Canterbury
1:20:20 Toledo 1400m 06.06.1998 Eagle Farm
1:27:21 Shindig 1500m 21.03.1998 Rosehill Gardens
1:33:00 Just A Printer 1600m 13.06.1994 Eagle Farm
1:41:40 Knight's Sword 1700m 09.03.1998 Flemington
1:46:80 Golden Heights 1800m 23.02.1980 Ascot
1:53:96 Balmeressa 1900m 01.04.1995 Rosehill Gardens
1:59:46 Northerly 2000m 12.03.2001 Flemington
2:07:49 Belele 2100m 16.09.1989 Belmont
2:12:00 Czar Oak 2200m 10.06.1995 Eagle Farm
2:24:31 Brave Chief 2400m 18.11.2000 Sandown
2:33:00 Kawtuban 2500m 07.11.1992 Flemington
2:53:90 Sir Wynyard 2800m 07.11.1964 Flemington
3:15:70 Sky Flyer 3200m 16.06.1994 Eagle Farm
Journal reference: Denny, M. W. Limits to running speed in dogs, horses and humans. Journal of Experimental Biology, 28 November 2008; 211, 3836-3849
http://jeb.biologists.org
Usain Bolt:
Usain Bolt: how fast?
(photo: vgn.img.terra.com)
His latest study in 2008 is titled "Limits to running speed in dogs, horses and humans” and is published in the Journal of Experimental Biology.
Denny concludes that the sprinting speeds of horses and dogs have reached their peak, but people still have considerable improvement that can be made.
The world record efforts of Usain Bolt in the 100m and 200m sprints at the Beijing Olympic Games gave the Stanford professor cause to ponder improvements in speed. He noted that people have been getting faster over recent decades - which begged the question: might massive increase in population simply be creating a larger pool? But also, he wondered, what are the absolute limits to running speeds - and are we close to achieving them?
Denny studied records of the running performances recorded by humans and thoroughbred horses dating back to the 19th century. For greyhounds he studied records back to the 1920’s.
His study concludes that thoroughbred horses have already reached a speed plateau.
Although his study was based on race times recorded in the US, it would be reasonable to assume that this would hold true to the world-wide thoroughbred population as a whole.
Denny analysed the records for the US Triple Crown races from 1896 to 2008 (noting that the Preakness Stakes results were from 1925 to 2008; and the Belmont Stakes from 1926 when the current distance was introduced).
He noted that horses are not running any faster in modern times than they were in past decades. He also assessed that the predicted maximum running speed for a horse is only 0.52 - 1.05% faster than current race records. Denny asserts that a plateau was achieved for the respective distances of the Kentucky Derby in1949; the Preakness Stakes in 1971; and the Belmont Stakes in 1973.
"Despite the fact that horses have been bred for speed and the population from which to select fast racehorses has increased over the past 50 years, race speeds have not increased in the past 40-60 years."
"These results suggest that definite speed limits do indeed exist for horses and that their current speeds are very close to these predicted limits. Horses appear to have reached their limit.”
“However, chance might still turn up a faster animal.” - Professor Mark Denny.
Denny predicts that thoroughbreds could improve their top speeds by as much as 1% by the time of the 2012 Kentucky Derby, eventually peaking at a top speed of just over 17 metres per second.
Looking at the speeds of human male race winners through the years, it seems as if men still haven't reached their top speeds at any distance, and Denny predicts that male 100m sprinters could one day get the record down to an incredible 9.48 seconds, running 0.23m/s faster than Usain Bolt's current world record of 9.69 seconds.
Denny is pleased to have shown that it is possible to calculate the absolute limits to speed of running animals ranging from humans to thoroughbred horses. However, he emphasises that we have no idea what aspect of physiology restricts a runners performance, and is keen to find out what will prevent future gold medal winners from breaking Denny's Limits.
Of course this research cannot account for the genetic freak who will take records beyond the parameters considered possible. And also to remember that it was predicted that man could not possibly run a ‘four minute mile' . Considering that Usain Bolt has a diet of chicken nuggets before competition - imagine the natural improvement to be made straight away with just a healthy diet!
And of course technological advances in racetrack surface and design can alter speed outcomes. Improvements to shoeing would be another factor.
Imposing a notion of preconceived limit or truism leaves opportunity for scepticism. We all know a list of truisms that are now historical novelties.
Mark Denny’s most publicised work was his study on water striders - which led to the term “Denny’s paradox” to explain a discrepancy between physics and previous understandings of how surface dwelling animals, such as the insect water strider moves.
It is interesting research. But I'm not sure if it will be the last word on the speed of the thoroughbred.
I’m not sure that the list of current Australian records would also support Professor Denny’s assertion. More than half of the Australian records have been created within the past 10 years (from 1998).
0:50:20 Rory's Tycoon 900m 17.12.2000 Sandown
0:54:76 Bush Outlaw 1000m 20.01.2001 Sandown
1:02:08 Miss Kournikova 1100m 24.02.2001 Caulfield
1:07:16 Iglesia 1200m 01.01.2001 Flemington
1:14:77 Al Mansour 1300m 19.08.2000 Canterbury
1:20:20 Toledo 1400m 06.06.1998 Eagle Farm
1:27:21 Shindig 1500m 21.03.1998 Rosehill Gardens
1:33:00 Just A Printer 1600m 13.06.1994 Eagle Farm
1:41:40 Knight's Sword 1700m 09.03.1998 Flemington
1:46:80 Golden Heights 1800m 23.02.1980 Ascot
1:53:96 Balmeressa 1900m 01.04.1995 Rosehill Gardens
1:59:46 Northerly 2000m 12.03.2001 Flemington
2:07:49 Belele 2100m 16.09.1989 Belmont
2:12:00 Czar Oak 2200m 10.06.1995 Eagle Farm
2:24:31 Brave Chief 2400m 18.11.2000 Sandown
2:33:00 Kawtuban 2500m 07.11.1992 Flemington
2:53:90 Sir Wynyard 2800m 07.11.1964 Flemington
3:15:70 Sky Flyer 3200m 16.06.1994 Eagle Farm
Journal reference: Denny, M. W. Limits to running speed in dogs, horses and humans. Journal of Experimental Biology, 28 November 2008; 211, 3836-3849
http://jeb.biologists.org
Usain Bolt:
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