Lessons to learn from the 2008 Melbourne Cup
November 5th 2008 05:35
This year it was expected that the European invasion of thoroughbreds would eclipse the local contingent and monopolise the placings. The first hint - and impetus for confidence - was the success of Godolphin’s All The Good in the Caulfield Cup.
Lesson to learn from a master: Bart Cummings
(photo: John Donegan)
Our first lesson was that the genius and skill of master trainer Bart Cummings will not be dimmed or denied by age. He follows a tried and true process and gets his charges to peak on the day. The preparation may appear 'old-fashioned' - that from another age and time - but it works again and again (twelve times now). Bart will be eighty-one when the next Melbourne Cup is run. The rise of Moatize this season gives him every hope that Cup number thirteen is a possibility.
All The Good was not as highly regarded as many of the other invaders - and especially the concerted attack by Aidan O’Brien with record nominations and still an armoury and armada of three on Cup Day.
What we can ascertain from the Melbourne Cup result is that Aidan O’Brien is still learning about the correct (most likely to succeed) horse to bring to Melbourne for the riches of the two mile handicap.
The success of Luca Cumani with two successive (though heartbreaking) second-placings in the Melbourne Cup is a template that Ballydoyle could use when selecting which horse(s) to send to Australia.
This year Bauer had to win his way into the Melbourne Cup field after being a long way down the list of qualified runners when he arrived. And like Media Puzzle he would (have to) win a Geelong Cup to qualify (though he did not win as impressively as Media Puzzle - and ultimately he was not be be as successful). But it is an improving robust horse that does best in the Melbourne Cup. A horse yet discovered - and one on an upward trajectory.
And also we learn that a lead up run is almost imperative. Godolphin at least won the consolation prize of the Caulfield Cup with Melbourne Cup hopeful All The Good. And although they left sorry that they could not (yet again) snare the ultimate prize - they did not go home empty-handed (they in fact have their hands on the purse and the Caulfield Cup).
It is Ballydoyle that will leave Australia with a sick and empty feeling. There was not only the ignominy of seeing their trinity of beautiful thoroughbreds at the tail end of the field - but also the soreness and injury of two (Septimus and Honolulu). And then the stewards questions post-race into the (what were they thinking!) race day tactics would leave a further sour taste as O’Brien was required to spit out the words of a failed and flawed plan. There would be no option of a further inquiry as the explanation was accepted (to a degree) as when sectionals were investigated it was seen that Alessandro Volta did get some soft sectionals once through the first mile. But really - the first mile was run at a tempo that would have seen Alessandro Volta some 30 lengths clear of the field had he been in the Melbourne Cup of 2007. The stewards elected not to issue charges but did state that they had “grave doubts about the ride” by Wayne Lordan on Alessandro Volta.
It is most likely that Weld and Cumani will continue to bring horses to Melbourne for the Melbourne Cup. It is less certain that Aidan O’Brien will return. Ballydoyle has been seriously bruised by this exercise.
And something else to observe (in future) are the comments and exaltations of prominent racehorse owner Lloyd Williams, who lauds the ability of the raiding Europeans (or Japanese) and says he is only turning up wishing and hoping for success - that they are obviously too good.
He won with Efficient in 2007 - and apart from being held up in traffic (and the absence of rain) C’Est La Guerre might well have claimed a consecutive victory for owner (and so much more) Lloyd Williams. But his horses (Zipping also unlucky) did easily beat home those Lloyd predicted to be unbeatable.
And as an interesting sidelight Williams has announced that he will be sending his Melbourne Cup winner of 2007 Efficient to England for the 2010 Ascot Gold Cup. Efficient would have to miss the 2009 Ascot Gold Cup as he recovers from injury. Efficient was rated as clearly the best of the Australian stayers and his counter-raid on the European staying prize is a worthy piece of lateral thinking from Williams. The Ascot Gold Cup is run over 4000m and this distance would seem ideal for such a natural stayer and clean-winded horse such as Efficient.
We did also learn (again) that Irish trainer Dermot Weld knows the right horse to bring to Melbourne with the sensational performance of lightly raced Profound Beauty who looked likely to be right in the finish at the top of the straight - and was not disgraced in fifth placing after also pulling up lame.
I still believe that the visiting horses would all benefit from a lead up run. And not only would the horses benefit - but the media and punters would have additional information and interest as a result. It would build the Melbourne Cup into a climax - and save us from a ‘pig in a poke’.
Comments from the jockeys after the race:
BLAKE SHINN (Viewed): "He was trained perfectly for the race and that was all important. The straight seemed to last forever.
"I thought I'd won on the line. I wasn't sure, I didn't want to go off too early after the line.
"I looked to the infield and they had the camera on Bauer so I thought I might be wrong."
COREY BROWN (Bauer): "Shattered. There's nothing more that I could have done.
"I reckon his run might have ended 25 metres out but, to his credit, the last two strides he really hit at the line, but it's not good enough.
"My biggest disappointment, no doubt."
BRETT PREBBLE (C'Est La Guerre): "A super run, very strong.
"We couldn't get clear. He should have won."
VLAD DURIC (Master O'Reilly): "Got held up. Needed to get free and rolling a bit earlier.
"Would almost have won if I'd got the right breaks."
GLEN BOSS (Profound Beauty): "She had a perfect run. We tracked the winner but when I asked her she really felt the ground."
CLARE LINDOP (Moatize): "Probably raced a bit too close. At the top of the straight he didn't let down as well as I thought he would but he boxed on well to the line."
DAMIEN OLIVER (Mad Rush): "Didn't quite stay the trip and came to the end of his run near the 200 metres."
JEFF LLOYD: (Nom Du Jeu): "He over-raced. He's a bit of a keen horse but got to the line OK."
DANNY NIKOLIC (Zipping): "He ran terrific but I ran into all sorts of trouble. He lost probably five lengths.
"He's probably run the best sectionals of the race. He was very unlucky."
CHRIS SYMONS (Newport): "If he had drawn better he would have been closer. He got home as well as anything else."
MICHAEL RODD (Ice Chariot): "Went well."
CRAIG NEWITT (Guyno): "Probably ran up to his best."
STEVEN KING (Littorio): "No excuse, the two miles was too far for him."
CRAIG WILLIAMS (Varevees): "She lacked a turn of foot."
GREG CHILDS (Boundless): "Had every chance."
NICHOLAS HALL: (Red Lord): "He'll be a better horse next year but he got the trip OK."
MARK SWEENEY: (Prize Lady: "She just didn't see it out."
JOHNNY MURTAGH (Septimus): "He might not be the horse for the race.
"When they got into the straight he just stopped."
STEPHEN BASTER (Barbaricus): "Didn't stay."
WAYNE LORDAN (Alessandro Volta): "Travelled well but wouldn't let down. Maybe the track was too firm.
"I think he'll be back."
COLM O'DONOGHUE (Honolulu): "The ground was too quick for him."
JAMES WINKS (Gallopin): "Couldn't breathe. I had to pull him up."
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Comment by Lady Henrietta Muddling
Potter in a Harry
I'm curious as to how you thought the overseas horses were going to go before the race.
I had a good listen to all the 'experts' and they all had them as favourites.
Which made picking a trifecta quite difficult for someone who only bets once a year. I boxed 11 horses. And the usual gambler's story ensues. I had 7 of the first 8. Just didn't include C'est la Guerre.
Fortunately, I had a couple of covering each way bets on Bart Cummings' horses. You just can't discount him on Cup (His) Day. So Bart payed for the failed bets and drinks. Which was nice of him. Cagey old bastard, Bart. (Are him and Lloyd related?) Gave his and local horses no hope. I wondered if he was foxing when he said, 'Spot the Aussie.' If a person had bet only on his horses each year for the past twenty, he'd still be in front, wouldn't he?
I might bet twice this year. Any tips for the Crown Oaks?
Interesting article btw. How long my interest in racing lasts, I'm not sure. But the spring carnival is a lot more interesting to an Aussie than the US elections.
Comment by Leonard Marlborough
Racing Write
I rated Mad Rush to win.
There were two strong speed events this Spring: The Caulfield Cup & The Geelong Cup. The speedfigures by Bauer in the Geelong Cup less than those gained by Media Puzzle - and Bauer achieved a result also slightly less in the end.
I didn't give Viewed much chance. Although he did come through the best speed race with an unlucky performance - but difficult to gauge how much improvement he would make. I assessed Mad Rush much the same as I had Delta Blue two years earlier.
I am loathe to select an overseas horse that does not have a lead up run. It becomes too much like guesswork. And as I use speed data all year I don't see why the Melbourne Cup should be an exception and a pure lottery (any more than it already is given the 'chaos theory' of racing). We like to base our decisions on some form of study or formula. I rated Septimus 4th. Because All Things Good was scratched Nome De Jeu & Barbaricus had best speedfigures and I rated them at 2nd & 3rd - believing Mad Rush had most improvement.
Luca Cumani deserves a win. He has worked it out with type of horse and tactics. The wheels seem to have fallen off the Aidan O'Brien juggernaut as the long racing year draws to an end. And I'm not sure if he will take advice.
If it had rained C'Est La Guerre would have been my first preference. Brilliant performance to thrash Nom De Jeu on a heavy track in the NZ Derby. And Lloyd played possum with him all Spring - saying for most of it that he was too immature and he would not even bother to start him. Listening to Lloyd is like taking a tip from a bookmaker.
The Oaks is similar to the Derby - if the favourite Samantha Miss does not win, then any number of possibilities remain. The best 'roughie' might be Tobouggie Woogie - like Viewed it has had no luck in lead up races.
Obama got in to $1.08 - much too short - but I didn't fancy losing on McCain @ $6.00.
Betting on Bart would see you ahead. So would betting on Lloyd I would think with What A Nuisance & Efficient both at long odds.
I'm just waiting for the Japanese horses to return. Delta Blues was a great result.
Comment by Lady Henrietta Muddling
Potter in a Harry
Out of Lady Henrietta and Muddling.
Thanks for responding. I'm enjoying the whole Spring Racing Carnival.
I'm no racing expert but I've been listening to what they say about how the Caulfield and Geelong Cups are good guides. I thought Nom de Jeu would end up in the first three. But I guess there's all these variables like barrier draws and what sort of run you get, the track conditions, etc.
I chucked Bauer in the mix. The Simon O'Donnell connection bothered me. He's always come across as a bit of a dweeb as a cricketer/commentator. But he seems to know his racing. So I'm glad my personal prejeudices didn't get in the way of that one.
This is really interesting for the novice horse racing fan:
So is this:
Luca Cumani deserves a win. He has worked it out with type of horse and tactics.
Well that information is no bloody good today, when he's the only horse I didn't pick in the first nine. Where were you yesterday when I needed you?
I'm hearing you on that one.
Well I'm boxing the whole lot. And praying a few outsiders get up. I nearly boxed the whole lot for the Cup. Thankfully it only payed $22,000. What a waste of $100 that would have been.
Obama got in to $1.08 - much too short - but I didn't fancy losing on McCain @ $6.00.
Don't get me started betting on politics. I'm still learning horse racing.