Melbourne Cup nominations: early thoughts
August 16th 2009 23:30
While the weights are still to be announced, the nominations for the 2009 Melbourne Cup have already created (as they always do) great interest and speculation.
(photo: The Age)
Many of those nominated will fall by the wayside. Some will not travel from other counties; some will go amiss; and others will simply fail to live up to expectations. But from this early list of 230 nominations we will look at a few that are heading the early betting charts.
Profound Beauty is already regarded as the favourite and clearly heads most betting charts at around $12.00 She most recently won the Group Three Ballyroan Stakes (1 1/2 miles) at Leopardstown defeating Mourayan. That was her third win this year - which includes winning the Listed Challenge Stakes over 1 mile & 6 furlongs second up.
She boasts the wisdom and genius of trainer Dermot Weld, one of the few outside of Australia knowing the recipe to win the Melbourne Cup, plus having the experience in Australian conditions with a meritorious 5th (beaten 3 lengths) behind Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup. She returns a year stronger and in better form than year 2008. Only the handicapper can make the task difficult - or even deter Weld from bringing her again.
C’est La Guerre is second favourite at 18.00. He also comes from a proven Melbourne Cup winning yard (team Saddler and Williams - even though only one half of the team have had Melbourne Cup success) and he was 3rd in the 2008 Melbourne Cup - one length ahead of Profound Beauty. It was always considered that C’est La Guerre would improve after his first preparation with team Saddler/Williams - but his unlucky 3rd (disappointed for a run) was the best performance of his campaign. He has proven his ability at the distance on a less than perfect preparation. His emphatic 4 length win in the 2008 New Zealand Derby on wet ground saw him thrash subsequent Group performers Nom De Jeu and Red Ruler. If it happens to be a wet track on Melbourne Cup day then this talented stayer - unbeaten on slow ground - would be the one for all to beat.
The 4 year old dual Derby (VRC & SA) winner Rebel Raider (currently $19.00) looms as a stayer of great promise. Discounting his excursion to Sydney last Autumn where he went ingloriously racing clockwise - his overall staying performances have been very strong with wins of 2.5 lengths (VRC) and 4 lengths (SA) at his only two attempts beyond 2000m. Not forgetting he easily accounted for champion Whobegotyou in the VRC Derby. With trainer Leon MacDonald a vocal advocate for the skills of Claire Lindop, it would also be a momentous victory if a female jockey can win Australia’s greatest race.
Viewed ($23.00) is the defending Melbourne Cup champion. The exciting tussle that saw him prevail over Luca Cumani’s Bauer gave him a surprise victory at 40/1, and provided a 12th Melbourne Cup victory for legend of the turf, Bart Cummings. His Spring campaign had appeared disappointing coming straight after his win at the Winter Carnival in Queensland in the (2400m) Brisbane Cup. But apart from a luckless 10th in the Caulfield Cup, all of his failures had been at less than suitable distances. He excels at 2400m and beyond. His efforts at the Sydney Autumn carnival were full of merit oven over shorter trips, and this son of Scenic appears now to have come into his prime.
Stablemate of C’Est La Guerre is 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient. Currently quoted at $21.00 this grey son of Zabeel has exceptional staying ability. Although only racing 4 times since his 2007 victory it would be unwise to discount a horse of such proven ability. He only needs to stay sound in his early preparation to be a serious contender come Melbourne Cup day 2009.
(photo: The Age)
2008 Melbourne Cup won by Viewed
(photo: The Age)
Many of those nominated will fall by the wayside. Some will not travel from other counties; some will go amiss; and others will simply fail to live up to expectations. But from this early list of 230 nominations we will look at a few that are heading the early betting charts.
Profound Beauty is already regarded as the favourite and clearly heads most betting charts at around $12.00 She most recently won the Group Three Ballyroan Stakes (1 1/2 miles) at Leopardstown defeating Mourayan. That was her third win this year - which includes winning the Listed Challenge Stakes over 1 mile & 6 furlongs second up.
She boasts the wisdom and genius of trainer Dermot Weld, one of the few outside of Australia knowing the recipe to win the Melbourne Cup, plus having the experience in Australian conditions with a meritorious 5th (beaten 3 lengths) behind Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup. She returns a year stronger and in better form than year 2008. Only the handicapper can make the task difficult - or even deter Weld from bringing her again.
C’est La Guerre is second favourite at 18.00. He also comes from a proven Melbourne Cup winning yard (team Saddler and Williams - even though only one half of the team have had Melbourne Cup success) and he was 3rd in the 2008 Melbourne Cup - one length ahead of Profound Beauty. It was always considered that C’est La Guerre would improve after his first preparation with team Saddler/Williams - but his unlucky 3rd (disappointed for a run) was the best performance of his campaign. He has proven his ability at the distance on a less than perfect preparation. His emphatic 4 length win in the 2008 New Zealand Derby on wet ground saw him thrash subsequent Group performers Nom De Jeu and Red Ruler. If it happens to be a wet track on Melbourne Cup day then this talented stayer - unbeaten on slow ground - would be the one for all to beat.
The 4 year old dual Derby (VRC & SA) winner Rebel Raider (currently $19.00) looms as a stayer of great promise. Discounting his excursion to Sydney last Autumn where he went ingloriously racing clockwise - his overall staying performances have been very strong with wins of 2.5 lengths (VRC) and 4 lengths (SA) at his only two attempts beyond 2000m. Not forgetting he easily accounted for champion Whobegotyou in the VRC Derby. With trainer Leon MacDonald a vocal advocate for the skills of Claire Lindop, it would also be a momentous victory if a female jockey can win Australia’s greatest race.
Viewed ($23.00) is the defending Melbourne Cup champion. The exciting tussle that saw him prevail over Luca Cumani’s Bauer gave him a surprise victory at 40/1, and provided a 12th Melbourne Cup victory for legend of the turf, Bart Cummings. His Spring campaign had appeared disappointing coming straight after his win at the Winter Carnival in Queensland in the (2400m) Brisbane Cup. But apart from a luckless 10th in the Caulfield Cup, all of his failures had been at less than suitable distances. He excels at 2400m and beyond. His efforts at the Sydney Autumn carnival were full of merit oven over shorter trips, and this son of Scenic appears now to have come into his prime.
Stablemate of C’Est La Guerre is 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient. Currently quoted at $21.00 this grey son of Zabeel has exceptional staying ability. Although only racing 4 times since his 2007 victory it would be unwise to discount a horse of such proven ability. He only needs to stay sound in his early preparation to be a serious contender come Melbourne Cup day 2009.
photo finish of 2008 Melbourne Cup
(photo: The Age)
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Comment by Anonymous
Unsung Heroine from the D Hayes stable. Obviously a talented type, if she can acclimatise she'll prove hard to beat.
Vigor. Bit of a spruik horse. Made significant improvement over the summer period and looks to have come back in fine form. Competitive in anything he contents.
Age Of Reason is the other worth a mention. Godolphin has to be respected. Whether any noms will turn into entries is anyone's guess however he does fit some of the critiera. Promising type but likely to be well weighted, lightly raced and still showing improvement and partial to firm ground [least by European standards].
Regards,
Steve M
Comment by Leonard Marlborough
Racing Write
I agree with your views on Unsung Heroine. She was a very good staying juvenile in England - her St Leger effort behind Conduit was very good. A second to Conduit looks to be an exceptional form line. Be very interested to see her Australian debut.
Vigor has the advantage of being adaptable and able to get up on the speed. Would need to take another step up this campaign to beat the very best though - but that may not be beyond him (his current speedfigures not quite at Group One level).
Changingoftheguard (racing tomorrow in UK) is another likely visitor of great interest.
Speed Gifted looked sensational with his Winter win here - but just average speedfigures. But he can only improve over ground (and what a brilliant turn of foot!).
Shocking could be anything this next campaign.
Can’t discount Master O’Reilly either as he has had superior staying speedfigures for the past two years now.
and...
Hopefully Luca Cumani will improve his recent Italian acquisition, Basaltico, and bring him to Melbourne. The Melbourne Spring would not be the same without the ‘Cumani’s’ in attendance.