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Horse racing is much more than an excuse for gambling. It is a love for the beauty, grace and speed of the horse. It can also be an intellectual battle of examining competing facts and trying to formulate the future from results of the past. In some ways it is an investigation, as performed by an eager detective. And in other ways it can be the thrill of a crossword puzzle, with multiple possible responses, but ultimately only one correct answer. I have been involved with horse racing in both practical and intellectual ways. My passion for the theatre of the racetrack saw me leave school at fifteen and spend early mornings immersed in the sweat, smells, and sting of preparing horses for racing. Later I would come to research bloodlines and work in the multi-million dollar world of thoroughbred breeding and sales. Horse racing has many facets. It does not sit in isolation in the world. It is something we should explore in detail and in depth. For more than ten years I have provided speedrating information to the racing industry and public through my company: Speedratings (www.speedratings.com.au).

Preview of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

October 4th 2008 09:52
Sunday October 5 2008
Longchamp 15:40
Qatar Prix De L'arc De Triomphe (Group 1)


Zarkava: favourite for the Arc
Zarkava: favourite for the Arc


(photo: cache.dailylife.com)



1. YOUMZAIN
5yo Bay Horse; Sinndar - Sadima
Trained by M Channon. Jockey Richard Hills.

Barrier 3.

Very nearly defeated Dylan Thomas in the Arc of 2007 and was denied victory by only a head margin. Going just as well this year with a strong win at Saint-Cloud and 2nd to (arch rival) Soldier Of Fortune in the Coronation Cup. Does not lack class or experience. He must be highly regarded again.

 
2. ZAMBEZI SUN
4yo Bay Colt; Dansili - Imbabala
Trained by P Bary. Jockey: Stephane Pasquier.

Barrier 11.

Talented French colt with a win in the Grand Prix de Paris (this course and distance) in 2007 and a recent winner of the Prix Foy. Failed in this race last year and recently well held by rivals Youmzain and Duke Of Marmalade. Not the most likely - but definitely not impossible.


3. ASK
5yo Bay Horse; Sadler's Wells - Request
Trained by Sir M Stoute. Jockey: Ryan Moore.

Barrier 15

Has not got close enough to Duke Of Marmalade this season to suggest that he would threaten here. Does love soft ground however and that is always a possibility in France.


 
4. SCHIAPARELLI
5yo Chestnut Horse; Monsun - Sacarina
Trained by S Bin Suroor. Jockey: Frankie Dettori.

Barrier 10

Runner-up to Zambesi Sun in Prix Foy. Performed well in Germany last season before being transferred to Godolphin. Frankie is required to ride - but he was hoping to ride Getaway.

 
5. MEISHO SAMSON
5yo Bay Horse; Opera House - My Vivien
Trained by S Takahashi. Jockey: Yutaka Take.
Barrier 4

Winner of the Japanese 2000 Guineas and Derby in 2006 who doesn’t appear to be going quite so well this season. Not nearly as good as Japanese champion Deep Impact - who also failed to win the Arc - and would surprise if he became the first Japanese horse to have the honour of an Arc win. But he’s tough & he stays so he deserves respect.

 
6. SOLDIER OF FORTUNE
4yo Bay Colt; Galileo - Affianced
Trained by A O'Brien. Jockey: S Heffernan.
Barrier 9

The number two Ballydoyle representative comes into the Arc off a break since 2nd in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud when defeated by Youmzain. A creditable 5th in this race last year and has the class to threaten.

  
7. DUKE OF MARMALADE
4yo Bay Colt; Danehill - Love Me True
Trained by A O'Brien. Jockey: Johnny Murtagh
Barrier 14

Top ranked turf horse in the world and has had (to date) an amazing season with 5 consecutive wins at Group 1. He never wins by much but has a bulldog endeavour that sees him overcome his rivals time after time. Drawn near the outside (would think that his stable & that of Zarkava would be pleased if they could swap barrier positions) but will get across with the aid of a Ballydoyle pacemaker to make it a genuine clip. A weather watch with him - as there is with Zarkava - but given reasonably firm footing the duel between he and Zarkava one of great anticipation. Huge chance for another O’Brien win.

 
8. PAPAL BULL
5yo Bay Horse; Montjeu - Mialuna
Trained by Sir M Stoute. Jockey: Jimmy Fortune.
Barrier 5

Almost beat Duke Of Marmalade in the King George. No doubting his talent if he puts it all together on the day. Difficult to ride, but this Montjeu stallion must not be underestimated.

 
9. IT'S GINO
5yo Bay Horse; Perugino - Imelda
Trained by P Vovcenko. Jockey Thierry Thulliez.
Barrier 2.

A Listed Race winner here in April. Easily beaten by fellow Arc rivals since and he would cause a huge surprise if he won (or was placed).
 
10. RED ROCK CANYON
5yo Bay Horse; Rock Of Gibraltar - Imagine
Trained by A O'Brien. Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue.
Barrier 13

The number three Ballydoyle entry - and pacemaker. Drawn just inside the Duke and he will bring him across the field and into a position. Not sure if they would want this to be too fierce a pace with the prospect of Zarkava swooping as she invariably does. He will lead and then maybe be ridden to a tempo to suit his stablemates.

 
11. GETAWAY
5yo Bay Horse; Monsun - Guernica
Trained by A Fabre. Jockey: Olivier Peslier.
Barrier 7

Fourth behind Dylan Thomas in the Arc of 2007. Won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville at his last start and he performed strongly in England earlier this year. He is one of the better chances.

 
12. VISION D'ETAT
3yo Bay Colt; Chichicastenango - Uberaba
Trained by E Libaud. Jockey Ioritz Mendizabal.
Barrier 8

The male equivalent to Zarkava. Unbeaten colt with wins in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly and the Prix Niel at Longchamp. If not for Zarkava - and Montmartre - he would be lauded as the star of his generation in France. He wins only narrowly - but does keep winning. Like Duke Of Marmalade he has a fierce will to win. He will go very close (as always).


13. KAMSIN
3yo Brown Colt; Samum - Kapitol
Trained by P Schiergen. Jockey: Johan Victoire.
Barrier 12
German-trained colt who was awarded a a Group 1 from Papal Bull and It's Gino at Cologne - before going on to win the Grosser Preis Von Baden on his latest start. In good form and not the least likely by any means.
 
14. BLUE BRESIL
3yo Bay Colt; Smadoun - Miss Recif
Trained by L Larrigade. Jockey: William Mongil.
Barrier 6

Struggling in weaker races. A win or placing would shock.
 
15. CIMA DE TRIOMPHE
3yo Bay Colt; Galileo - Sopran Londa
Trained by B Grizzetti. Jockey: Dario Vargui.
Barrier 16

Italian Derby winner. Only 7th behind Montmartre in the Grand Prix de Paris and I doubt if he will threaten any of these.

16. ZARKAVA
3yo Bay Filly; Zamindar - Zarkasha
Trained by A De Royer-Dupre. Jockey: Christophe Soumillon.
Barrier 1

The best filly seen in Europe for many years. Unbeaten and her list of victories are well documented. As is her racing style of sitting back and sprinting home with ridiculous speed. Loves this track and the Longchamp home straight is her own domain. Went into the Prix Vermeille as a test to see if she would run the extra distance - and that she did with a record time after giving a huge start when so poorly away from the barriers. Leading up to that race De Royer-Dupre was concerned by her trackwork and demeanour. She could not afford to be so tardy away against the best (older and male) thoroughbreds in the world. She has her sour disposition. But she also has the fastest turn of foot of any horse anywhere.




Summing Up:

The crowd will draw a collective breathe as they turn into the home straight with Duke Of Marmalade challenging for the lead and Zarkava at (or near) the tail of the field. Can any horse withstand her withering burst? Or will a new champion like Vision D’Etat emerge?

I want Zarkava to win. And although a tough task for a filly (history is against her) - she is no ordinary filly.

My predictions:

1 Zarkava
2 Duke Of Marmalade
3 Vision D’Etat
4 Youmzain

Latest odds with Ladbrokes:

Zarkava 7/4
Duke Of Marmalade 4/1
Soldier Of Fortune 4/1
Vision D'Etat 8/1
Youmzain 10/1
Getaway 12/1
Papal Bull 16/1
Meisho Samson 20/1
33/1 and over others.

Replay of the Arc of 2007:

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