A prize at any price?
November 16th 2008 07:41
“Samantha Miss is definitely up for sale.” - Ron Crogham.
(photo: Quentin Lang)
Ron Crogham, the 80 year old and now wheelchair bound owner of Samantha Miss placed an advertisement in The Sportsman seeking expressions of interest in his champion, VRC Oaks winning 3 year old filly.
And he is serious. He will sell. Half. At the right price.
And the price is a reputed $10 million - for a one half share. Her valuation being a cool $20 million.
Crogham bought the daughter of champion stallion Redoute’s Choice for (a none too cheap) $1.5 million as a yearling. She has now raced 11 times for 7 wins and 3 placings - with prizemoney earnings of $1,729,260.
Samantha Miss dominated the fillies ranks through the Spring - and was clearly not disgraced when 3rd in the WS Cox Plate - beating home the likes of Theseo (subsequently to win a Group One Mackinnon Stakes) and C’Est La Guerre (who would next start run an unlucky 3rd in the Melbourne Cup).
Samantha Miss is the second Redoute's Choice filly to win the VRC Oaks. The other being Miss Finland who would also dominate fillies events - and subsequently not run a place after a chequered trip in the Cox Plate.
But is she worth an investment of $10 million? Timing is everything - and earlier this year fillies and mares without the race performance of Samantha Miss were fetching multiple millions. But economic conditions have turned for the worst. Sales figures overseas are plummeting.
And another factor is the residual return that may be recouped by a mare. She did defeat the colt Sebring in the Group One Champagne Stakes - and Sebring will eventually be retired to stud in the Spring of 2009 after Widden Stud paid a reputed $30 million for the $130,000 yearling purchase.
Surely she is worth two-thirds of his sales price - given she improved her record through the Spring while Sebring was out injured?
But no. It does not equate.
First part of the process is to assess possible prizemoney earnings from her 4 year old campaign. Samantha Miss has promised to be the special filly that dominates her own sex and age and then repeats the dose at four. But Miss Finland could not translate her 3 year old form into even greater success as an older mare. In recent history the champion filly Serenade Rose failed to come anywhere close to her 3 year old season the following year.
So, if Samantha Miss does not dominate at four - and remember it is possible that she will be competing against Whobegotyou and Weekend Hussler, just to name two - then she can earn good prizemoney, although not enough to warrant a $10 million (half share) price tag.
But what then of her residual value at stud?
Well if measured against the earning capacity of Sebring the story is not so good here either. Even if Sebring was to stand at a modest service fee - the multiples in earning by each service would see a very strong return in even year one of his retirement. Subsequently success would see his fees skyrocket and well - the rest you can imagine. A goldmine.
When Samantha Miss is retired she would be then served by a quality stallion. With or without any deals it would be $100,000 plus. Of course it is likely that a stud would purchase her and circumvent this need for payment. But regardless of purchaser there is then the waiting. Will she get into foal as a maiden mare? And if that part is a success then the worry that both mare and foal will survive foaling (and that is not always the case).
Yes, if a chain of events all go well then a foal from Samantha Miss will be presented for sale. And it would fetch a pretty penny (Hong Kong dollar or Euro). But it is such a fraught process. We need only to look at the breeding record of the US Champion Mare Genuine Risk - who was barely ever in foal - and when she was her subsequent progeny were failures. Or the panic at present as the champion Sunline is in danger after suffering from laminitis.
The residual value of fillies will always lead to the possibility of a genuine and handsome return after racing. A gelding will be lucky to find a home - and an average performing stallion may just as well be a gelding for all the income to be derived. But at the top of the market - the very pinnacle of racehorse excellence - the value of the filly cannot possibly match that of the colt.
I would not outlay more than I thought possible to win in stakemoney (plus a breeding premium) with a champion filly. Perhaps a brilliant season would return anywhere from $1 million to $3 million (we are talking Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup wins of course at this extreme); and a breeding premium would then double this.
Perhaps $10 million is the right price for a half share. But even if I had these fantasy figure dollars I would think twice. Then turn and walk away.
Samantha Miss winning the 2008 Tea Rose Stakes:
Samantha Miss for sale
(photo: Quentin Lang)
Ron Crogham, the 80 year old and now wheelchair bound owner of Samantha Miss placed an advertisement in The Sportsman seeking expressions of interest in his champion, VRC Oaks winning 3 year old filly.
And he is serious. He will sell. Half. At the right price.
And the price is a reputed $10 million - for a one half share. Her valuation being a cool $20 million.
Crogham bought the daughter of champion stallion Redoute’s Choice for (a none too cheap) $1.5 million as a yearling. She has now raced 11 times for 7 wins and 3 placings - with prizemoney earnings of $1,729,260.
Samantha Miss dominated the fillies ranks through the Spring - and was clearly not disgraced when 3rd in the WS Cox Plate - beating home the likes of Theseo (subsequently to win a Group One Mackinnon Stakes) and C’Est La Guerre (who would next start run an unlucky 3rd in the Melbourne Cup).
Samantha Miss is the second Redoute's Choice filly to win the VRC Oaks. The other being Miss Finland who would also dominate fillies events - and subsequently not run a place after a chequered trip in the Cox Plate.
But is she worth an investment of $10 million? Timing is everything - and earlier this year fillies and mares without the race performance of Samantha Miss were fetching multiple millions. But economic conditions have turned for the worst. Sales figures overseas are plummeting.
And another factor is the residual return that may be recouped by a mare. She did defeat the colt Sebring in the Group One Champagne Stakes - and Sebring will eventually be retired to stud in the Spring of 2009 after Widden Stud paid a reputed $30 million for the $130,000 yearling purchase.
Surely she is worth two-thirds of his sales price - given she improved her record through the Spring while Sebring was out injured?
But no. It does not equate.
First part of the process is to assess possible prizemoney earnings from her 4 year old campaign. Samantha Miss has promised to be the special filly that dominates her own sex and age and then repeats the dose at four. But Miss Finland could not translate her 3 year old form into even greater success as an older mare. In recent history the champion filly Serenade Rose failed to come anywhere close to her 3 year old season the following year.
So, if Samantha Miss does not dominate at four - and remember it is possible that she will be competing against Whobegotyou and Weekend Hussler, just to name two - then she can earn good prizemoney, although not enough to warrant a $10 million (half share) price tag.
But what then of her residual value at stud?
Well if measured against the earning capacity of Sebring the story is not so good here either. Even if Sebring was to stand at a modest service fee - the multiples in earning by each service would see a very strong return in even year one of his retirement. Subsequently success would see his fees skyrocket and well - the rest you can imagine. A goldmine.
When Samantha Miss is retired she would be then served by a quality stallion. With or without any deals it would be $100,000 plus. Of course it is likely that a stud would purchase her and circumvent this need for payment. But regardless of purchaser there is then the waiting. Will she get into foal as a maiden mare? And if that part is a success then the worry that both mare and foal will survive foaling (and that is not always the case).
Yes, if a chain of events all go well then a foal from Samantha Miss will be presented for sale. And it would fetch a pretty penny (Hong Kong dollar or Euro). But it is such a fraught process. We need only to look at the breeding record of the US Champion Mare Genuine Risk - who was barely ever in foal - and when she was her subsequent progeny were failures. Or the panic at present as the champion Sunline is in danger after suffering from laminitis.
The residual value of fillies will always lead to the possibility of a genuine and handsome return after racing. A gelding will be lucky to find a home - and an average performing stallion may just as well be a gelding for all the income to be derived. But at the top of the market - the very pinnacle of racehorse excellence - the value of the filly cannot possibly match that of the colt.
I would not outlay more than I thought possible to win in stakemoney (plus a breeding premium) with a champion filly. Perhaps a brilliant season would return anywhere from $1 million to $3 million (we are talking Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup wins of course at this extreme); and a breeding premium would then double this.
Perhaps $10 million is the right price for a half share. But even if I had these fantasy figure dollars I would think twice. Then turn and walk away.
Samantha Miss winning the 2008 Tea Rose Stakes:
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