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Horse racing is much more than an excuse for gambling. It is a love for the beauty, grace and speed of the horse. It can also be an intellectual battle of examining competing facts and trying to formulate the future from results of the past. In some ways it is an investigation, as performed by an eager detective. And in other ways it can be the thrill of a crossword puzzle, with multiple possible responses, but ultimately only one correct answer. It is a thing of beauty as much as it is a matter of commerce. I have been involved with horse racing in both practical and intellectual ways. From time spent as an apprentice jockey, to later the research of bloodlines in the multimillion dollar world of thoroughbred breeding and sales. And for the past twelve years I have provided speedrating information to the racing industry and public through my company: Speedratings (www.speedratings.com.au).

Seachange

May 29th 2008 07:11
Most interest in the upcoming races in England has centred around (and quite rightly) Takeover Target and Magnus as they set themselves for another attempt at the premier sprint, the Group Two King's Stand Stakes (1000m) at Royal Ascot. This race will be the last for Magnus before he is retired to stud (he will retire with a peak Speedrating of 290, making him an ideal stallion prospect). Takeover Target will follow up four days later with the Group One Golden Jubilee (1200m) on the final day of Royal Ascot.

Seachange
Seachange



Meanwhile the very talented New Zealand mare Seachange has settled into the Newmarket stables of Geoff Wragg over the past month after failing in Dubai. She was not disgraced however with her 6th placing in the Group One Dubai Duty Free behind Jay Peg who set a track record. Her time was only 0.41 seconds slower, and is in fact one second faster than the previous best for the distance set by Ipi Tombe in 2003. I started this paragraph by calling her visit to Dubai unsuccessful. Perhaps I really need to define (or redefine) that comment. Her time was sensational, even better than that produced by Sunline when she finished third behind Jim And Tonic and Fairy King Prawn in 2001, and she did earn $US100,000 (and was nosed out of 5th for an extra $US50,000) in the process.

This trip to England has been planned well in advance with the hope that she can perform well and increase her value as a broodmare and (by aid of good performances in England) create interest in her foals from parties all around the world.


Seachange will also start in the Golden Jubilee Stakes at her English debut, but with her primary target being the Group Two Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot (1600m). However her 1200m form should not be discounted as she has recorded a decisive victory winning the Telegraph Handicap (Group One) at Trentham over this trip by 3 1/2 lengths, and recording a sizzling 1 minute 6.66 seconds (just outside the New Zealand record) carrying 58.5kg. Seachange will be the first New Zealand trained mare to compete in England with her new trainer, Graeme Sanders on his way over to take charge. Her long time trainer Ralph Manning elected to stay in New Zealand due to his stable commitments. Seachange's owner, Dick Karreman, had wished that Manning would elect to travel with her and was disappointed by his decision. Although on consideration he has preferred not to chance a local trainer who may be tempted to change a tried and true training regime, and has opted for a New Zealander who he knows well. Sanders has trained over 1000 winners in New Zealand, including 18 Group One winners.

This is planned as her final preparation. Seachange is booked to go to Zabeel next Spring and only failure to get in foal would tempt them to give her another preparation.

Incidentally, Jay Peg is being set for a tilt at the Cox Plate this year. The video below has relevance and reference to the near future, and the distant future of next Spring. Huge run from Seachange in this also as she did not have the ideal preparation coming into the race.



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Comment by Perc the punter

June 13th 2008 18:21
Nice post, and very well written.

I have to agree concerning Seachange, a very nice mare indeed, the aussie horses will run well, but it will be no surprise at all if she performs at Ascot, especially as you say, for the Golden Jubilee, her run in Dubai showed that she is more than capable of competing at a higher level.

Takeover Target regardless of where he finishes, you can guarantee that he will give 100%, horses like that always make good betting propositions, Magnus well he deserves to win a major sprint, he is a high quality horse especially over the 1000metres, but he always seems to find one better on the day.Hopefully though he can finish with a well deserved win

Personally would love to see Jay Peg, or any of the UK horse come over for the Cox plate, I doubt if we will ever see the absolute top class performers come for the cox plate, simply because of when in the year it is programed, clashes with the Arc, thankfully though we still get some nice quality handicapers come over for the cups, Aussie stayers have been very poor over the last few years, so its adds a lot of interest to a race that would otherwise suffer from a distinct lack of quality.

Comment by Leonard Marlborough

June 14th 2008 04:22
Hi Percy,

So right about the Arc. It was always a balancing act to get Vinnie Roe here for the Cup. Let's not forget Oscar Schindler though who ran 3rd in the Arc (unlucky too, and beaten by Helissio!) before failing badly in the Melbourne Cup. Left me stunned (and poorer). Then he was 4th in the following Arc behind Peintre Celebre and Pilsudski!

Training schedules and the tyranny of distance will always make that a hard double.

I have no connections with the stud, but I reckon Magnus with his 290 speedfigure, lovely pedigree and attitude, will make a top stallion. I will be making recommendations to people with broodmares suitable.

Jay Peg would add interest to a Cox Plate that is looming as a classic.

About the Australian stayers: I rated Efficient incredibly highly and selected him for Speedratings even in the Cox Plate. But I started to doubt him (and the speedfigures) after his run of failures. Should have known better. His victory was exceptional and he could travel overseas also (runs on a European preparation anyway)


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