Timeform and Speedratings
June 9th 2010 08:14
Recently, when writing about Workforce’s record-breaking win in the Epsom Derby, I did state that times don’t lie.
(photos: Neil, Murray) click images for enlargements
Neil Murray Photography
Well - they don’t - but they are a comparative measure and not something to fall victim to in isolation.
A track record is always a valid recommendation. However, it is more so indicative if other records on the program are not broken - or threatened.
I thought that I would have to wait years to see another horse the likes of Zarkava. And the next year along comes Sea The Stars. And this year - to my surprise - from seemingly nowhere comes Workforce to annihilate a Derby field. Timeform have since rated Workforce on 132 - this rating him as superior (at this stage and time) to the Champion Sea The Stars. To follow there would need to be victories in the Eclipse Stakes; Irish Champion Stakes; and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to allow me to consider him on a par with Sea The Stars - let alone superior. Of course Sea The Stars retired as the Number One Racehorse in the World with a Timeform rating of 140. So, Workforce has a good start and Timeform margin over Sea The Stars - but still a long way to go to be measured alongside him at year’s end.
The art of speedfigures is an overlooked form of assessment in Australia. I have seen many people make the mistake of looking at race times in isolation - without comparative par values - and completely misjudging true ability. Beyer speedfigures - and the adaptations and variations - are common in the US, but rarely used in Australia. I adapted the principles created by Beyer for racing in Australia and have been successfully using them for myself and clients since 1998. Last Saturday, for instance, there were 3 winners on the 8 race program that had the best recent speed performance (by my measure) for their races - and were top rated. These winners were Picalero @ $32.70; Doubtful Jack @ $3.50; and Red Buttons @ $5.00. In addition, the feature race - the Provincial Plate - was fought out between the two horses with best speed credentials - with Leica Larrikan winning @ $8.50. More than an opinion - a valid measure as well.
Seeing is believing - but sometimes seeing is misleading. Providing that you are not investing on an opinion there is no problem with having a differing opinion. But once you start risking money on an opinion it is best to be well versed on all possibilities - especially those based on measures and facts.
Speedratings
Doubtful Jack - an impressive winner at Flemington
(photos: Neil, Murray) click images for enlargements
Neil Murray Photography
Well - they don’t - but they are a comparative measure and not something to fall victim to in isolation.
A track record is always a valid recommendation. However, it is more so indicative if other records on the program are not broken - or threatened.
I thought that I would have to wait years to see another horse the likes of Zarkava. And the next year along comes Sea The Stars. And this year - to my surprise - from seemingly nowhere comes Workforce to annihilate a Derby field. Timeform have since rated Workforce on 132 - this rating him as superior (at this stage and time) to the Champion Sea The Stars. To follow there would need to be victories in the Eclipse Stakes; Irish Champion Stakes; and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to allow me to consider him on a par with Sea The Stars - let alone superior. Of course Sea The Stars retired as the Number One Racehorse in the World with a Timeform rating of 140. So, Workforce has a good start and Timeform margin over Sea The Stars - but still a long way to go to be measured alongside him at year’s end.
The art of speedfigures is an overlooked form of assessment in Australia. I have seen many people make the mistake of looking at race times in isolation - without comparative par values - and completely misjudging true ability. Beyer speedfigures - and the adaptations and variations - are common in the US, but rarely used in Australia. I adapted the principles created by Beyer for racing in Australia and have been successfully using them for myself and clients since 1998. Last Saturday, for instance, there were 3 winners on the 8 race program that had the best recent speed performance (by my measure) for their races - and were top rated. These winners were Picalero @ $32.70; Doubtful Jack @ $3.50; and Red Buttons @ $5.00. In addition, the feature race - the Provincial Plate - was fought out between the two horses with best speed credentials - with Leica Larrikan winning @ $8.50. More than an opinion - a valid measure as well.
Seeing is believing - but sometimes seeing is misleading. Providing that you are not investing on an opinion there is no problem with having a differing opinion. But once you start risking money on an opinion it is best to be well versed on all possibilities - especially those based on measures and facts.
Speedratings
Leica Larrikan (red) holding out Kallogg at Flemington
Longshot Picalero successful at Flemington
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