Horses to watch in 2009: Whobegotyou
December 28th 2008 04:51
It does not take the title of seer or prophet to predict that Mark Kavanagh’s 3 year old Street Cry gelding Whobegotyou will be a star in 2009. Rather, it would be a brave prediction to suggest that he may fail.
And I don’t believe that he will fail to deliver on the promise of his exceptional 3 year old campaign, fully expecting him to be even better as a mature galloper. But I will try to explain this expectation through examining history and fact.
Whobegotyou virtually went through 2008 on his first preparation. After winning a Geelong Maiden over 1100m on debut on the 23rd of May (characteristically even coming from the rear of the field to win over the sprint course by 1.8 lengths - running away) he would repeat the dose at his first metropolitan win at Moonee Valley - over the slightly longer trip of 1200m - and win running away by 1.5 lengths. It was an emphatic victory that gave hint of what was to come. He was then put out for a brief let up and resumed only 10 weeks later in the Group 3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield.
Whobegotyou finished the unluckiest of seconds - being continually blocked for a run (for any room at all) and he charged home to just fail and catch the good filly Sugar Babe. Behind him would be subsequent stakeswinners Fernandina and Hips Don’t Lie.
What would follow would be his only unplaced run of his career when (again!) an unlucky 7th in the Blue Diamond Prelude at Caulfield behind Fernandina - a capable horse but well below the class of Whobegotyou.
Whobegotyou was then returned to Moonee Valley for the Group 2 Stutt Stakes over 1600m - a tight course with frequent turns that should not suit a fast finishing horse - but most people fail to take into account that the pressure always goes on early from just after the 800m to the hometurn. It takes a horse with stamina to win over the Valley mile. The performance of Whobegotyou to win this Group 2 event was sensational. Michael Rodd made his move on Whobegotyou coming down the side - and before the turn the race was already over as he had claimed all of his rivals and was allowed by Rodd to coast to the line.
At his next start Whobegotyou would win the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) almost as emphatically and put paid to any theory that he was solely a Moonee Valley specialist - or that he did not handle Caulfield. In two consecutive starts he would win by a combined margin of 7.5 lengths - doing it easily.
There was to follow the debate as to whether Whobegotyou should contest the Cox Plate over 2040m at Moonee Valley, or the (seemingly easier) AAMI Vase for 3 year olds over the same trip. Mark Kavanagh would keep Whobegotyou in 3 year old company - and pull a masterstroke by winning the Cox Plate with Maldivian.
Whobegotyou would run around 10 lengths faster to win the AAMI Vase than Maldivian would in a tactical Cox Plate. I believe Mark Kavanagh placed his exceptionally gifted Maldivian to great advantage in a less than stellar 2008 Cox Plate. Next year Maldivian can defend his title - but perhaps next year he will crank up the speed early to ensure the tempo of race that should suit his stablemate and emerging superstar. And if the others of the field decide not to chase - then Kavanagh may win consecutive Cox Plates either way.
Efficient would produce similar speedfigures in the 2006 AAMI Vase and also run nearly 10 lengths quicker than Cox Plate winner Fields Of Omagh would on the same day.
In the past three seasons an outstanding three year old would produce juvenile speedfigures suggesting a horse of the highest calibre. Both Efficient and Weekend Hussler have produced (to varying degrees, and in varying ways) outstanding performances as older horses. And Whobegotyou has produced Speedfigures on par with his predecessors. The mathematical fact of speedfigures concur with the opinions (hopes and observations) of many racing enthusiasts.
At the end of his campaign Whobegotyou would be beaten by a very promising stayer Rebel Raider, in the Group 1 VRC Derby over 2500m. It proved that he would stay as a 4 year old if given the right focus and preparation.
Sometimes a horse looks very good because of inferior opposition - a weak crop of juvenile horses - Big Brown in the US may be so blessed. But the speedfigures of Whobegotyou have been just as good as those displayed by Weekend Hussler in his 3 year old campaign. But, unlike Weekend Hussler, Mark Kavanagh knows very well that his horse will run (at the very least) a strong 2040m - and most likely a strong 2400m against all ages. There will be no need for experimentation in 2009 for Whobegotyou.
The bookmakers already know this. In early markets with Sportingbet Whobegotyou is favourite at $8.00 for the 2009 Cox Plate. He is the shortest quote of any favourite prepost for the 2009 feature races.
For an illustration of how speedfigures prove historically and consistently correct you can read the information and overview on my Speedratings website.
SPEEDRATINGS.COM.AU
Whobegotyou
And I don’t believe that he will fail to deliver on the promise of his exceptional 3 year old campaign, fully expecting him to be even better as a mature galloper. But I will try to explain this expectation through examining history and fact.
Whobegotyou virtually went through 2008 on his first preparation. After winning a Geelong Maiden over 1100m on debut on the 23rd of May (characteristically even coming from the rear of the field to win over the sprint course by 1.8 lengths - running away) he would repeat the dose at his first metropolitan win at Moonee Valley - over the slightly longer trip of 1200m - and win running away by 1.5 lengths. It was an emphatic victory that gave hint of what was to come. He was then put out for a brief let up and resumed only 10 weeks later in the Group 3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield.
Whobegotyou finished the unluckiest of seconds - being continually blocked for a run (for any room at all) and he charged home to just fail and catch the good filly Sugar Babe. Behind him would be subsequent stakeswinners Fernandina and Hips Don’t Lie.
What would follow would be his only unplaced run of his career when (again!) an unlucky 7th in the Blue Diamond Prelude at Caulfield behind Fernandina - a capable horse but well below the class of Whobegotyou.
Whobegotyou was then returned to Moonee Valley for the Group 2 Stutt Stakes over 1600m - a tight course with frequent turns that should not suit a fast finishing horse - but most people fail to take into account that the pressure always goes on early from just after the 800m to the hometurn. It takes a horse with stamina to win over the Valley mile. The performance of Whobegotyou to win this Group 2 event was sensational. Michael Rodd made his move on Whobegotyou coming down the side - and before the turn the race was already over as he had claimed all of his rivals and was allowed by Rodd to coast to the line.
At his next start Whobegotyou would win the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) almost as emphatically and put paid to any theory that he was solely a Moonee Valley specialist - or that he did not handle Caulfield. In two consecutive starts he would win by a combined margin of 7.5 lengths - doing it easily.
There was to follow the debate as to whether Whobegotyou should contest the Cox Plate over 2040m at Moonee Valley, or the (seemingly easier) AAMI Vase for 3 year olds over the same trip. Mark Kavanagh would keep Whobegotyou in 3 year old company - and pull a masterstroke by winning the Cox Plate with Maldivian.
Whobegotyou would run around 10 lengths faster to win the AAMI Vase than Maldivian would in a tactical Cox Plate. I believe Mark Kavanagh placed his exceptionally gifted Maldivian to great advantage in a less than stellar 2008 Cox Plate. Next year Maldivian can defend his title - but perhaps next year he will crank up the speed early to ensure the tempo of race that should suit his stablemate and emerging superstar. And if the others of the field decide not to chase - then Kavanagh may win consecutive Cox Plates either way.
Efficient would produce similar speedfigures in the 2006 AAMI Vase and also run nearly 10 lengths quicker than Cox Plate winner Fields Of Omagh would on the same day.
In the past three seasons an outstanding three year old would produce juvenile speedfigures suggesting a horse of the highest calibre. Both Efficient and Weekend Hussler have produced (to varying degrees, and in varying ways) outstanding performances as older horses. And Whobegotyou has produced Speedfigures on par with his predecessors. The mathematical fact of speedfigures concur with the opinions (hopes and observations) of many racing enthusiasts.
At the end of his campaign Whobegotyou would be beaten by a very promising stayer Rebel Raider, in the Group 1 VRC Derby over 2500m. It proved that he would stay as a 4 year old if given the right focus and preparation.
Sometimes a horse looks very good because of inferior opposition - a weak crop of juvenile horses - Big Brown in the US may be so blessed. But the speedfigures of Whobegotyou have been just as good as those displayed by Weekend Hussler in his 3 year old campaign. But, unlike Weekend Hussler, Mark Kavanagh knows very well that his horse will run (at the very least) a strong 2040m - and most likely a strong 2400m against all ages. There will be no need for experimentation in 2009 for Whobegotyou.
The bookmakers already know this. In early markets with Sportingbet Whobegotyou is favourite at $8.00 for the 2009 Cox Plate. He is the shortest quote of any favourite prepost for the 2009 feature races.
For an illustration of how speedfigures prove historically and consistently correct you can read the information and overview on my Speedratings website.
SPEEDRATINGS.COM.AU
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Comment by Paul
Surreal Short Stories
I know nothing about horse racing, but I recently spent a weekend with a horse breeder who said the racing industry brings misery to horses for the amusement of humans.
There was mention of hormones, snapping bones & madness.
I don't have nearly enough information on the subject to form an opinion, so I wondered what you thought about the alleged 'dark side' of this popular industry.
Best regards, P.
Comment by Leonard Marlborough
Racing Write
This is a debate than needs to be encouraged to improve the welfare outcomes for racehorses. Horseracing is not the great sin that extreme views would suggest. And neither is it perfect.
Horseracing is an easy target because of its very high profile. The abolition of steroids and hormones is a must - though this is a problem primarily now more so for the US than other jurisdictions. And this year they have mandated in several states to be drug free. A national policy is gathering.
I wrote an article about this subject earlier this year after a tragic racetrack death. I will refer you to this for further reading.
EIGHT BELLES TOLL
Comment by Paul
Surreal Short Stories