Picking the Right Horse

One of the great pleasures of horse racing for those who are intellectually inclined is handicapping. The process of consulting the Daily Racing Form to find out more about each horse's previous performances and figuring out which is likely to be the fastest in a given race is arguably one of the best parts of betting on a race. While there are many aspects to the challenge of choosing the right horse, in this article we look at the quickest and easiest way to appraise a horse's record and aim to give you some tips as to how to pick a winner.

A Quick Guide to Handicapping

The first step in handicapping is to discard any non-contender and then to decide which one of the surviving contenders is worth betting on. You should avoid placing a wager on anything low level such as starter allowances, claimers or maiden claimers and only consider maiden-special-weight events, allowances/optional claimers, stakes and allowances. There is a reason for avoiding placing a bet on a cheaper race – better classes of horse are generally more consistent and therefore more likely to bring in a win. In this handicapping system, you should only consider three horses for every race, and the three that you need to consider are the ones that make the Daily Racing Form consensus. All of the rest can be safely ignored. Remember that this system is an attempt to reduce the handicapping process to its most basic form in an attempt to make finding a horse to place a wager on quicker and easier. If you reduce your consideration down to only three horses in each race, you will skip the time consuming stage of weeding out those candidates that are most likely to lose.

How to Identify Potential Contenders

Look at the Daily Racing Form and for each of the following found in the contender's record, give it a tick:

• The horse has come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd position at the day's approximate distance (to within a furlong) and on the same footing as today during its previous 3 races. You should only mark this point if the race was held on the same surface as the one they will be running on today, as being strict on this point will help you to be safer in your bet.
• The horse has come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the same class as today or better across its previous 3 starts.
• The horse has dropped in class off its previous race (which should have been during the previous 45 days).
• The horse should have won 20% or better on a minimum of 5 starts either this year or during this and the previous year.
• The horse has posted a large win (by 3 lengths or more) during its last out over the last 45 days.
• The horse has had an excuse last out over the previous 45 days e.g. being impeded, bumped or steadied.
• The horse has lost in its return to competition following a layoff of over 45 days or it lost in its 1st career start.
• The horse posted a bullet 5 or 6 furlong workout during the last 14 days.
• Its trainer has won a minimum of 20% of their starts during the year.
• Its jockey has won a minimum of 20% of his starts during the year.
• The horse is wearing blinkers or is receiving lasix for the 1st time.
• The horse will be running on a grass track for the first time and has been given a Tomlinson rating for turf breeding of a minimum of 320.

The horse that has the most ticks is the one that you should select. You should wager Win only and only in the circumstances that the horse is even money or better in odds as you will want to double your money if the horse wins. Should more than one horse have the same number of ticks, you should choose the one whose trainer shows the biggest winning percentage. If there is still a deadlock, you should then opt for the horse with the jockey with the biggest winning percentage. If your preferred horse scratches or, alternatively, is held at low odds, you should go with your second choice. Should that horse also be withdrawn or turn out to be too heavily backed, go with your third choice. In the unlikely situation that all three of your preferred horses have stingy odds or are taken out, you should avoid betting. While this is a conservative method, focusing solely on consensus selections from the Daily Racing Form and on only Win bets, this traditional system is easy to understand and quick to execute while restoring confidence and the bankroll of those who have struggled to achieve success through more exotic wagers.